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Monday’s CPI Could Decide Your Next Mortgage Payment

  Canada lost 68,000 jobs in September. Inflation is sitting at 3%. The Bank of Canada has to decide on October 28 which of those facts matters more, and on Monday morning one more number lands to help it choose. If you carry a variable-rate mortgage, a HELOC or a renewal this winter, that number has a price tag. Two reports pulling in opposite directions The jobs data came first. Statistics Canada reported on October 9 that employment fell by 68,000 in September, pushing the unemployment rate to 6.5% from 6.4%. It followed a drop of about 42,000 in August, which means more than half of the 181,000 jobs gained between April and July have now been wiped out. Ontario shed 20,000 positions on its own. Markets reacted within hours: the odds of a quarter-point Bank of Canada hike on October 28 dropped to roughly 25% from about 40%, according to LSEG data reported by Reuters. Inflation is telling the opposite story. The consumer price index rose 3.0% year over year in August, matching Ju...
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U.S. Markets Tumble on Earnings, Bond Yields

U.S. stocks fell on Wednesday, October 25, 2023, as investors digested mixed earnings reports from Microsoft and Alphabet while Treasury yields pushed higher. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 0.32% to 33,035.93 points, the S&P 500 index slid 1.43% to 4,186.77 points, and the Nasdaq composite index plunged 2.43% to 12,821.22 points.

Alphabet shares slid more than 9% after the Google parent beat on earnings and revenue but fell short in its cloud business. Microsoft shares rose 3% after its own double beat showed its bets on AI were paying off for its cloud segment. Other tech giants such as Amazon and Meta also declined ahead of their earnings reports.

The earnings season also coincided with a surge in bond yields, as the Bank of Canada and the U.S. Federal Reserve signaled their readiness to fight inflation by keeping interest rates high. The BoC held its key rate at 5.0%, but lowered its 2023 growth forecast to 1.2%. The Fed is expected to announce its tapering plans next week.

The higher yields weighed on rate-sensitive sectors such as technology and real estate, but boosted energy and financial stocks. The Canadian dollar traded for 79.23 cents US compared with 79.28 cents US on Tuesday.



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