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How the GTA Condo Market Crashed in Q3 2023
The Greater Toronto Area (GTA) condo market has seen a sharp decline in sales in the third quarter of 2023, according to a new report by the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB). The report shows that condo sales in the GTA dropped by 47% year-over-year, from 9,538 units in Q3 2022 to 5,041 units in Q3 2023. The average condo price also fell by 12% year-over-year, from $688,011 to $604,763.
The main reason for the drop in sales and prices is the lack of affordability for many would-be buyers, who are facing high mortgage rates, tight lending standards, and a limited supply of affordable units. The report also notes that the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and its impact on the economy and consumer confidence have also contributed to the slowdown in the condo market.
TRREB President Kevin Crigger said that the condo market is facing a "perfect storm" of challenges that are making it difficult for buyers to enter or move up in the market. He said that while the demand for condos remains strong, especially among first-time buyers and downsizers, the supply is not keeping up with the demand, resulting in a widening gap between buyers and sellers.
"The GTA condo market is in need of more supply and more affordability. We need to see more incentives and policies that support the development of a diverse range of housing options, including condos, that can meet the needs and budgets of different types of buyers. We also need to see more support for buyers who are struggling to qualify for mortgages or save for down payments, especially in the wake of the pandemic," Crigger said.
TRREB Chief Market Analyst Jason Mercer said that the condo market is expected to remain subdued for the rest of 2023 and into 2024, as the economic recovery from the pandemic is still uncertain and uneven. He said that while some segments of the condo market may see some improvement in sales and prices, such as those in prime locations or with desirable features, the overall market will likely continue to face headwinds from affordability and supply issues.
"The GTA condo market is going through a period of adjustment and correction after several years of strong growth and high prices. We expect that this will be a temporary phase, as the long-term fundamentals of the market remain solid, such as population growth, immigration, urbanization, and lifestyle preferences. However, it will take some time for the market to regain its momentum and balance," Mercer said.
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