The U.S. labor market continues to show signs of strength as the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits dropped to a five-week low of 209,000 last week, according to the Labor Department. This indicates that employers are holding on to their workers amid a tight labor market and rising demand for goods and services.
However, the report also contained some hints of trouble, as the number of people collecting unemployment checks rose by 30,000 to 1.7 million in the week that ended Sept. 30. This suggests that some workers are having difficulty finding new jobs after losing their previous ones.
The Federal Reserve has been raising its benchmark interest rate since last year to combat surging consumer prices, which reached four-decade highs in 2022. Many economists feared that higher rates would dampen economic growth and trigger a recession, but the economy and the job market have remained resilient so far.
The Fed is expected to raise rates again in December, which would be the fourth increase this year. Some analysts believe that the Fed is nearing the end of its rate-hike cycle and may pause or even reverse course next year if inflation pressures ease and growth slows.
The combination of moderating inflation and robust hiring has raised hopes that the Fed can achieve a so-called soft landing, which means cooling down the economy without causing a downturn. Rubeela Farooqi, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics, said that "overall, layoffs remain low and demand for workers remains strong. Even as the Fed has taken aggressive action to soften labor market conditions, businesses are not shedding workers at a rapid pace."
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