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The Rate Cuts Are Over — Is a Hike Coming?

  July 23, 2026 Oil shocks, sticky inflation and a technical recession are pulling the Bank of Canada in opposite directions at once. For most of the past two years, the only question about the Bank of Canada was how far and how fast it would cut. The overnight rate fell from 5.00% to 2.25% between June 2024 and October 2025, one of the sharpest easing cycles in the Bank's history, and it has held there through six consecutive decisions since. That story is now over. The question on the table for the rest of 2026 isn't whether the Bank cuts again — it's whether the next move is actually a hike. Two conflicting signals, one Bank The case for staying put — or even cutting — comes from the growth side of the ledger. Statistics Canada data showed the economy contracted in both the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026, meeting the informal definition of a technical recession. That was enough to have some economists warning the Bank had no room to raise rates at a...
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Wall Street Rallies Despite Fed's Tapering Plans

 


Stocks rose on Friday, extending their gains for the week, as investors shrugged off the hawkish tone of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's testimony to Congress. Powell signaled that the Fed is ready to start tapering its bond purchases as soon as November, and that interest rate hikes could follow sooner than expected. However, he also acknowledged that the economic recovery is still facing headwinds from the delta variant of the coronavirus and supply chain disruptions.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 0.7%, or 238 points, to close at 35,677. The S&P 500 gained 0.8%, or 34 points, to end at 4,544. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.9%, or 139 points, to finish at 15,212. All three major indexes posted weekly gains of more than 1%.

The dollar weakened against a basket of major currencies, as traders reduced their bets on a faster pace of monetary tightening. The dollar index fell 0.3% to 93.38. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note edged lower to 1.45%, after hitting a three-month high of 1.54% on Thursday.

Wall Street analysts said that Powell's comments were largely priced in by the market, and that investors are focusing on the strong earnings outlook and the prospects of more fiscal stimulus from Washington. They also noted that the Fed's tapering plans are contingent on the economic data, which could change depending on the evolution of the pandemic and inflation.

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