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Monday’s CPI Could Decide Your Next Mortgage Payment

  Canada lost 68,000 jobs in September. Inflation is sitting at 3%. The Bank of Canada has to decide on October 28 which of those facts matters more, and on Monday morning one more number lands to help it choose. If you carry a variable-rate mortgage, a HELOC or a renewal this winter, that number has a price tag. Two reports pulling in opposite directions The jobs data came first. Statistics Canada reported on October 9 that employment fell by 68,000 in September, pushing the unemployment rate to 6.5% from 6.4%. It followed a drop of about 42,000 in August, which means more than half of the 181,000 jobs gained between April and July have now been wiped out. Ontario shed 20,000 positions on its own. Markets reacted within hours: the odds of a quarter-point Bank of Canada hike on October 28 dropped to roughly 25% from about 40%, according to LSEG data reported by Reuters. Inflation is telling the opposite story. The consumer price index rose 3.0% year over year in August, matching Ju...
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Global Markets Surge on Fed Rate Cut Signals


Markets around the world are experiencing a significant upswing as the Federal Reserve signals potential rate cuts in the coming year. This optimistic outlook has sparked a rally across both stock and bond markets, with Asia joining the upward trend.

Key Highlights:

  • Stock Market Rally: A global stock index has risen for six consecutive sessions, with notable gains in Australian and South Korean shares. The S&P 500 reached its highest point in nearly two years, and Apple Inc’s shares hit a new high.
  • Federal Reserve’s Dovish Stance: The Fed maintained current rates but hinted at a 75 basis point reduction in 2024 through its “dot plot,” a more aggressive cut than previously suggested.
  • Bond Market Gains: Following the Fed’s announcement, US Treasuries saw a rise, with 10-year yields dropping below 4% for the first time since August. Swap contracts indicate expectations of 140 basis points of easing within the next year.
  • Inflation Trends: Recent reports show a slowdown in producer-price increases and a decrease in the annual inflation rate, aligning with the Fed’s target.

This broad “risk-on” rally is anticipated to continue, with experts like Kellie Wood from Schroders Plc predicting robust market performance. The dovish signs from the Fed have indeed delivered an early Christmas gift to investors, setting a positive tone for market activities.

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