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5 Things to Know Today: BoC Hike Bets, TSX Slide, Oil Near $100 (Oct. 23)

  Canadian Money Brief • Friday, October 23, 2026 The Bank of Canada decision is five days away, the TSX gave back most of Wednesday's gains, and oil is flirting with US$100 again. Here are the five things Canadian wallets need to know today. 1. Markets Lean Toward a Bank of Canada Hike on Oct. 28 A decision that looked like a ninth straight hold is now a genuine coin flip with a hawkish tilt. After Governor Tiff Macklem warned that there is "no resolution in sight" for the Middle East conflict, BMO and Desjardins flipped to a hike call, Scotiabank firmed up its call and Goldman Sachs joined them, all looking for a quarter-point move to 2.50%. Overnight swaps priced about an 87% chance of a hike earlier this week, though other economists still argue for a hold, pointing to September's 68,000 job losses and a 6.5% unemployment rate. What it means for you: A quarter-point hike adds roughly $21 a month in interest for every $100,000 of variable-rate borrowing (HELOCs an...
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US Futures Fall as Rate-Cut Bets Get a Reality Check

 


US stock futures fell on Wednesday, signaling no let-up in a rough January. Investors’ optimism for interest rate cuts got a reality check, and worries about China’s economy grew. Dow Jones Industrial Average ( ^DJI) futures fell 0.4%, while S&P 500 ( ^GSPC) futures slid 0.4%, set to build on Tuesday’s losing start to the holiday-shortened week. 

Futures on the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 ( ^NDX) were down roughly 0.5%. Stocks have struggled as policymakers push back against persistent bets that central banks will cut rates early and often in 2024. ECB president Christine Lagarde on Wednesday joined the likes of Federal Reserve Governor Chris Waller in warning that expectations of imminent loosening are too high. Another knockback came from disappointing GDP data suggesting that China’s growth is flagging despite stimulus measures. 

Oil prices fell amid fears of a pullback in demand from the world’s second biggest economy. Hopes now rest on quarterly earnings, with the season set to pick up pace, and the release of the December retail sales report later Wednesday. 

Fed officials have been keen to stress that their policy decision making will be driven by incoming economic data. Regional bank fourth-quarter results are in focus in the morning after earnings from Wall Street’s big lenders got a mixed reception.

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