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Lock In or Wait? Why Two Big Banks Say Rates Are Going Up in October

  Published September 2, 2026 The Bank of Canada did exactly what all 35 economists in Reuters' latest poll expected today: it held its overnight rate at 2.25% for a sixth straight decision, keeping the prime rate at 4.45%. Bond markets had priced in barely a 3% chance of anything else. What's not settled is what happens next — and on that question, Canada's biggest banks are more split than they've been all year. Four of the Big Six expect the Bank to sit tight through the end of 2026. Two expect it to start hiking as soon as October. If you're renewing a mortgage in the next few months, that gap isn't academic — it's the difference between locking in now and gambling on a rate cycle turning against you. The Split, Bank by Bank Here's where the six largest banks stand on where the overnight rate lands by the end of 2026: Bank Year-end 2026 call Stance BMO 2.25% (hold) Hold camp CIBC 2.25% (hold) Hold camp RBC 2.25% (hold) Hold camp TD 2.25% (hold) Hold...
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Navigating Turbulent Waters: Stock Market Reacts to Inflation Surge



The stock market experienced a jittery session today as investors grappled with yet another surge in inflation. The producer price index, a crucial measure of wholesale inflation, leaped 0.3% in January, surpassing economists’ expectations of a 0.1% rise. This unexpected spike has left market participants questioning the Federal Reserve’s stance on interest rates.

Here’s a snapshot of today’s market movements:

  1. S&P 500: The benchmark index danced perilously close to the flat line, teetering just below its recent record closing high.
  2. Dow Jones Industrial Average: The blue-chip index dipped by 0.3%, shedding over 100 points.
  3. Nasdaq Composite: The tech-heavy index exhibited some wavering, reflecting the market’s uncertainty.

Earlier this week, the Dow plummeted 500 points following an alarming consumer inflation report. Investors have been on a rollercoaster ride, reevaluating their outlook on the US economy and the timing of potential interest rate cuts.

In the midst of this volatility, some notable earnings-related moves are noted:

  • Coinbase (COIN): Shares surged over 14% after the crypto exchange posted its first quarterly profit in two years. The recent rise in bitcoin prices, coupled with anticipation surrounding the Securities and Exchange Commission’s decision on spot bitcoin ETFs, fueled Coinbase’s rally.
  • Applied Materials (AMAT): The machinery maker’s stock also jumped, signaling optimism for a chip sector rebound.

As the market navigates these choppy waters, investors remain vigilant, keeping a close eye on inflation data and central bank policies. The tug-of-war between economic indicators and monetary policy decisions continues, leaving traders and analysts alike on edge.

Stay tuned for further developments as the market grapples with inflationary pressures and charts its course through uncertain terrain.


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