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5 Things to Know Today: BoC Hike Odds, Fixed Rates, Tariff Swap, $100 Oil & Budget Countdown (Oct. 25)

  Canadian Money Brief • Sunday, October 25, 2026 A big week for your wallet starts Wednesday. Here are the five things Canadians should know before it begins. 1 The Bank of Canada decides Wednesday, and markets lean toward a hike The Bank of Canada announces its rate decision at 9:45 a.m. ET on Wednesday, Oct. 28, alongside a new Monetary Policy Report. Prediction markets price roughly a 79% chance of a quarter-point hike to 2.50%, up sharply after Governor Tiff Macklem’s hawkish comments at the IMF meetings, though analysts remain split and some expect a “hawkish hold.” The U.S. Fed also decides that day. What it means for you: Variable-rate mortgage and HELOC holders feel it first. A 0.25-point hike works out to roughly $70 more per month on a $500,000 variable mortgage (25-year amortization), and prime would move from 4.45% to 4.70%. A hold means little change until the next decision on Dec. 9. 2 Fixed mortgage rates have already moved without the Bank Fixed rates follow bond ...
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Wall Street Nears 5,000 Milestone

 

U.S. stocks continued their upward trajectory, setting more records as evidence mounted of a remarkably solid job market. Here’s a snapshot of today’s market activity:

  • The S&P 500 inched up by 2.85 points, reaching 4,997.91.
  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average also achieved an all-time high, edging up by 48.97 points to 38,726.33.
  • The Nasdaq composite gained 37.07 points, closing at 15,793.71.

During the day, the S&P 500 even briefly surpassed the 5,000 level for the first time. While such milestones may seem arbitrary in a market driven by math and financial data, they can offer a psychological boost. Remember, not long ago, experts were predicting a near-certain bear market and recession. Yet, the U.S. economy has defied expectations, and the latest report indicates fewer workers applied for unemployment benefits last week than anticipated.

Investors are increasingly recognizing that positive economic news translates to higher corporate profits, which ultimately benefit stocks. Earnings reports from major U.S. companies have been mixed, with some notable winners:

  • The Walt Disney Co. reported stronger-than-expected profits, benefiting from cost cuts and growth at its theme parks.
  • Ralph Lauren saw robust holiday sales worldwide, particularly in Asia.
  • Arm Holdings, a U.K.-based semiconductor company, exceeded analysts’ expectations.
  • However, PayPal fell short of profit forecasts for 2024, and S&P Global reported weaker profits for the latest quarter.

As Wall Street approaches the 5,000 milestone, it serves as a reminder of how far we’ve come. Amid the market’s emotional swings, staying grounded in data and fundamentals remains crucial. 

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