The Bank of Canada (BoC) is set to announce its interest rate decision on Wednesday, and most analysts expect no change from the current 5 per cent level. The bank has been on hold since July, 2023, after raising rates ten times in 2022 and early 2023 to curb inflation.
Inflation has fallen significantly since then, dropping to 2.9 per cent in January, within the bank’s 1-per-cent to 3-per-cent target range. However, the bank is not in a hurry to lower rates, as it wants to see more evidence of downward pressure on core inflation, which excludes volatile items. The bank also wants to avoid stimulating the housing market, which is showing signs of recovery after a slump.
Some economists think the bank could start cutting rates as early as April, after the recent positive inflation data. However, others believe the bank will wait until June or later, as it monitors the impact of the U.S. economic boom on Canadian exports and the effect of high mortgage costs on shelter inflation.
The bank is also expected to provide some guidance on the end of its quantitative tightening (QT) program, which reduces the size of its balance sheet. The bank said last year that it expected to end QT in late 2024 or early 2025, but some market participants speculate that it could happen sooner, as short-term lending markets have shown signs of strain.
Comments
Post a Comment