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The Rate Cuts Are Over — Is a Hike Coming?

  July 23, 2026 Oil shocks, sticky inflation and a technical recession are pulling the Bank of Canada in opposite directions at once. For most of the past two years, the only question about the Bank of Canada was how far and how fast it would cut. The overnight rate fell from 5.00% to 2.25% between June 2024 and October 2025, one of the sharpest easing cycles in the Bank's history, and it has held there through six consecutive decisions since. That story is now over. The question on the table for the rest of 2026 isn't whether the Bank cuts again — it's whether the next move is actually a hike. Two conflicting signals, one Bank The case for staying put — or even cutting — comes from the growth side of the ledger. Statistics Canada data showed the economy contracted in both the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026, meeting the informal definition of a technical recession. That was enough to have some economists warning the Bank had no room to raise rates at a...
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Canadian Job Market Shows Resilience: 41,000 New Jobs Added Despite Unemployment Rate Uptick


In a recent report by Statistics Canada, the Canadian job market demonstrated resilience in February. Despite the challenges posed by population growth, employers added 41,000 net new jobs during the month. These gains were primarily driven by an increase in full-time positions.

However, the unemployment rate also saw a slight uptick, rising to 5.8 per cent. This development highlights the delicate balance between job creation and population expansion. As the country continues to grow, policymakers and economists closely monitor these trends.

The services sector played a significant role in employment gains, reflecting a diverse range of industries. The Bank of Canada remains vigilant, observing labor market dynamics and wage growth as it assesses the need for any adjustments to its benchmark interest rate.

While the Canadian economy faces headwinds, the job market’s ability to generate new employment opportunities is a positive sign. As we navigate the complexities of a changing workforce, staying informed about these trends is crucial for individuals and policymakers alike.


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