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Lock In or Wait? Why Two Big Banks Say Rates Are Going Up in October

  Published September 2, 2026 The Bank of Canada did exactly what all 35 economists in Reuters' latest poll expected today: it held its overnight rate at 2.25% for a sixth straight decision, keeping the prime rate at 4.45%. Bond markets had priced in barely a 3% chance of anything else. What's not settled is what happens next — and on that question, Canada's biggest banks are more split than they've been all year. Four of the Big Six expect the Bank to sit tight through the end of 2026. Two expect it to start hiking as soon as October. If you're renewing a mortgage in the next few months, that gap isn't academic — it's the difference between locking in now and gambling on a rate cycle turning against you. The Split, Bank by Bank Here's where the six largest banks stand on where the overnight rate lands by the end of 2026: Bank Year-end 2026 call Stance BMO 2.25% (hold) Hold camp CIBC 2.25% (hold) Hold camp RBC 2.25% (hold) Hold camp TD 2.25% (hold) Hold...
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Canadian Job Market Shows Resilience: 41,000 New Jobs Added Despite Unemployment Rate Uptick


In a recent report by Statistics Canada, the Canadian job market demonstrated resilience in February. Despite the challenges posed by population growth, employers added 41,000 net new jobs during the month. These gains were primarily driven by an increase in full-time positions.

However, the unemployment rate also saw a slight uptick, rising to 5.8 per cent. This development highlights the delicate balance between job creation and population expansion. As the country continues to grow, policymakers and economists closely monitor these trends.

The services sector played a significant role in employment gains, reflecting a diverse range of industries. The Bank of Canada remains vigilant, observing labor market dynamics and wage growth as it assesses the need for any adjustments to its benchmark interest rate.

While the Canadian economy faces headwinds, the job market’s ability to generate new employment opportunities is a positive sign. As we navigate the complexities of a changing workforce, staying informed about these trends is crucial for individuals and policymakers alike.


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