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5 Things to Know Today: BoC Hike Odds, Fixed Rates, Tariff Swap, $100 Oil & Budget Countdown (Oct. 25)

  Canadian Money Brief • Sunday, October 25, 2026 A big week for your wallet starts Wednesday. Here are the five things Canadians should know before it begins. 1 The Bank of Canada decides Wednesday, and markets lean toward a hike The Bank of Canada announces its rate decision at 9:45 a.m. ET on Wednesday, Oct. 28, alongside a new Monetary Policy Report. Prediction markets price roughly a 79% chance of a quarter-point hike to 2.50%, up sharply after Governor Tiff Macklem’s hawkish comments at the IMF meetings, though analysts remain split and some expect a “hawkish hold.” The U.S. Fed also decides that day. What it means for you: Variable-rate mortgage and HELOC holders feel it first. A 0.25-point hike works out to roughly $70 more per month on a $500,000 variable mortgage (25-year amortization), and prime would move from 4.45% to 4.70%. A hold means little change until the next decision on Dec. 9. 2 Fixed mortgage rates have already moved without the Bank Fixed rates follow bond ...
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Canadian Job Market Shows Resilience: 41,000 New Jobs Added Despite Unemployment Rate Uptick


In a recent report by Statistics Canada, the Canadian job market demonstrated resilience in February. Despite the challenges posed by population growth, employers added 41,000 net new jobs during the month. These gains were primarily driven by an increase in full-time positions.

However, the unemployment rate also saw a slight uptick, rising to 5.8 per cent. This development highlights the delicate balance between job creation and population expansion. As the country continues to grow, policymakers and economists closely monitor these trends.

The services sector played a significant role in employment gains, reflecting a diverse range of industries. The Bank of Canada remains vigilant, observing labor market dynamics and wage growth as it assesses the need for any adjustments to its benchmark interest rate.

While the Canadian economy faces headwinds, the job market’s ability to generate new employment opportunities is a positive sign. As we navigate the complexities of a changing workforce, staying informed about these trends is crucial for individuals and policymakers alike.


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