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5 Things to Know Today — September 22, 2026

  September 22, 2026 BoC hike odds reach a coin flip. Oil retreats from four-month highs. Trump's Belarus potash play draws fire. A new federal bill speeds up major projects — with strings attached. Here's what moves your money today. 1. BoC October Hike Is Now a Coin Flip The Bank of Canada next meets October 28 , and markets are evenly split on whether it will raise rates for the first time since cutting to 2.25%. The whiplash is largely imported: after the U.S. Federal Reserve hiked 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00% on September 16 in a unanimous 12-0 vote — the first American rate increase since July 2023 — market-implied odds of a matching BoC move jumped from below 10% to roughly 60% in two weeks, according to LSEG Data & Analytics. Before the BoC's September 2 hold, odds of a hold sat at 94%. The 175-basis-point gap between the BoC (2.25%) and the Fed (3.75–4.00%) is the widest since 2022, which puts direct downward pressure on the loonie and upward pressure on Ca...
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S&P/TSX Composite and U.S. Stock Markets Rally After Rate Decision



On Wednesday, the S&P/TSX composite index closed up 185.13 points at 22,045.71, following a boost from the Federal Reserve’s latest interest rate announcement. Simultaneously, U.S. stock markets also surged, with the Dow Jones industrial average rising 401.37 points to 39,512.13 and the S&P 500 index gaining 46.11 points to reach 5,224.62. The Nasdaq composite also joined the rally, climbing 202.62 points to 16,369.41.

The Federal Reserve’s decision to hold its key rate steady for the fifth consecutive meeting was widely expected. However, the central bank’s projection of three rate cuts in 2024 surprised some investors, given the strong inflation data earlier this year. Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that while inflation has cooled from its peak, uncertainties remain, and the path forward is uncertain.

For investors, the Fed’s announcement brought positive news. Mike Archibald, Vice President and Portfolio Manager at AGF Investments Inc., highlighted that the market had anticipated a reduction to two cuts in 2024. The fact that the central bank maintained its projection of three cuts was well-received. Although the Fed lowered its expectations for cuts in 2025, it upgraded its growth outlook, signaling confidence in the economy.

Looking ahead, Archibald believes that rate cuts are still likely to come mid-year. In Canada, the situation may differ slightly, as the economy has not shown the same persistent strength. The Bank of Canada, which also held its key rate steady, expects to start cutting rates this year but remains divided on timing.

As the markets responded favorably to the Fed’s decision, investors are cautiously optimistic about better times ahead. Equities in risk-on sectors, such as discretionary, communications, services, industrials, and financials, outperformed. The Canadian dollar traded at 73.75 cents US, and commodities experienced mixed movements.

In summary, the S&P/TSX composite’s upward trajectory, coupled with gains in U.S. stock markets, reflects investor confidence in the economic recovery. As the year unfolds, market participants will closely monitor central bank actions and economic indicators to navigate the evolving landscape.

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