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CMHC Just Cut Its Housing Forecast — What It Means If You're Buying, Selling, or Renewing

  Published July 28, 2026 Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation quietly downgraded its outlook for the rest of 2026 last week, and the new numbers are worth a look no matter which side of the housing market you're standing on. The federal housing agency's Summer 2026 update now calls for slower growth, softer home prices, fewer new builds and continued easing in rental markets right through the end of the year — with a split that leaves Ontario and B.C. looking a lot different from the Prairies and Quebec. Here's what's actually in the update, and what it means for your specific situation. What CMHC changed The agency's baseline call for 2026 is a Canadian economy growing at just 0.7%, with high borrowing costs, weak population growth and cautious buyers keeping a lid on demand even as affordability has technically improved. The practical result, nationally: Housing starts are expected to fall to about 241,400 units this year, down from 259,028 in 2025 Resale acti...
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S&P/TSX Composite and U.S. Stock Markets Rally After Rate Decision



On Wednesday, the S&P/TSX composite index closed up 185.13 points at 22,045.71, following a boost from the Federal Reserve’s latest interest rate announcement. Simultaneously, U.S. stock markets also surged, with the Dow Jones industrial average rising 401.37 points to 39,512.13 and the S&P 500 index gaining 46.11 points to reach 5,224.62. The Nasdaq composite also joined the rally, climbing 202.62 points to 16,369.41.

The Federal Reserve’s decision to hold its key rate steady for the fifth consecutive meeting was widely expected. However, the central bank’s projection of three rate cuts in 2024 surprised some investors, given the strong inflation data earlier this year. Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that while inflation has cooled from its peak, uncertainties remain, and the path forward is uncertain.

For investors, the Fed’s announcement brought positive news. Mike Archibald, Vice President and Portfolio Manager at AGF Investments Inc., highlighted that the market had anticipated a reduction to two cuts in 2024. The fact that the central bank maintained its projection of three cuts was well-received. Although the Fed lowered its expectations for cuts in 2025, it upgraded its growth outlook, signaling confidence in the economy.

Looking ahead, Archibald believes that rate cuts are still likely to come mid-year. In Canada, the situation may differ slightly, as the economy has not shown the same persistent strength. The Bank of Canada, which also held its key rate steady, expects to start cutting rates this year but remains divided on timing.

As the markets responded favorably to the Fed’s decision, investors are cautiously optimistic about better times ahead. Equities in risk-on sectors, such as discretionary, communications, services, industrials, and financials, outperformed. The Canadian dollar traded at 73.75 cents US, and commodities experienced mixed movements.

In summary, the S&P/TSX composite’s upward trajectory, coupled with gains in U.S. stock markets, reflects investor confidence in the economic recovery. As the year unfolds, market participants will closely monitor central bank actions and economic indicators to navigate the evolving landscape.

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