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5 Things to Know Today: BoC Decision Looms, Oil Spikes, Bigger CCB Cheques Land

  Tuesday, July 14, 2026 Good morning. Here's what Canadians need to know today, from tomorrow's Bank of Canada rate call to a bigger Canada Child Benefit deposit landing next week. 1. Bank of Canada decides tomorrow — a hold is widely expected The Bank of Canada announces its interest rate decision Wednesday, July 15, at 9:45 a.m. ET, alongside its quarterly Monetary Policy Report. Markets and economists widely expect the Bank to hold its key rate at 2.25%, with Governor Tiff Macklem holding a press conference at 10:45 a.m. ET to explain the decision. What it means for you: If you're renewing a mortgage or carrying a variable-rate loan or HELOC, tomorrow's decision likely won't change your payment. But watch the tone of the statement closely — renewed oil-price pressure (see #3) could shape how the Bank talks about inflation risk heading into the fall. 2. U.S. inflation data drops this morning The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its June Consumer Price In...
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S&P/TSX Composite and U.S. Stock Markets Rally After Rate Decision



On Wednesday, the S&P/TSX composite index closed up 185.13 points at 22,045.71, following a boost from the Federal Reserve’s latest interest rate announcement. Simultaneously, U.S. stock markets also surged, with the Dow Jones industrial average rising 401.37 points to 39,512.13 and the S&P 500 index gaining 46.11 points to reach 5,224.62. The Nasdaq composite also joined the rally, climbing 202.62 points to 16,369.41.

The Federal Reserve’s decision to hold its key rate steady for the fifth consecutive meeting was widely expected. However, the central bank’s projection of three rate cuts in 2024 surprised some investors, given the strong inflation data earlier this year. Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that while inflation has cooled from its peak, uncertainties remain, and the path forward is uncertain.

For investors, the Fed’s announcement brought positive news. Mike Archibald, Vice President and Portfolio Manager at AGF Investments Inc., highlighted that the market had anticipated a reduction to two cuts in 2024. The fact that the central bank maintained its projection of three cuts was well-received. Although the Fed lowered its expectations for cuts in 2025, it upgraded its growth outlook, signaling confidence in the economy.

Looking ahead, Archibald believes that rate cuts are still likely to come mid-year. In Canada, the situation may differ slightly, as the economy has not shown the same persistent strength. The Bank of Canada, which also held its key rate steady, expects to start cutting rates this year but remains divided on timing.

As the markets responded favorably to the Fed’s decision, investors are cautiously optimistic about better times ahead. Equities in risk-on sectors, such as discretionary, communications, services, industrials, and financials, outperformed. The Canadian dollar traded at 73.75 cents US, and commodities experienced mixed movements.

In summary, the S&P/TSX composite’s upward trajectory, coupled with gains in U.S. stock markets, reflects investor confidence in the economic recovery. As the year unfolds, market participants will closely monitor central bank actions and economic indicators to navigate the evolving landscape.

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