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5 Things to Know Today: BoC Hike Odds, Fixed Rates, Tariff Swap, $100 Oil & Budget Countdown (Oct. 25)

  Canadian Money Brief • Sunday, October 25, 2026 A big week for your wallet starts Wednesday. Here are the five things Canadians should know before it begins. 1 The Bank of Canada decides Wednesday, and markets lean toward a hike The Bank of Canada announces its rate decision at 9:45 a.m. ET on Wednesday, Oct. 28, alongside a new Monetary Policy Report. Prediction markets price roughly a 79% chance of a quarter-point hike to 2.50%, up sharply after Governor Tiff Macklem’s hawkish comments at the IMF meetings, though analysts remain split and some expect a “hawkish hold.” The U.S. Fed also decides that day. What it means for you: Variable-rate mortgage and HELOC holders feel it first. A 0.25-point hike works out to roughly $70 more per month on a $500,000 variable mortgage (25-year amortization), and prime would move from 4.45% to 4.70%. A hold means little change until the next decision on Dec. 9. 2 Fixed mortgage rates have already moved without the Bank Fixed rates follow bond ...
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Stock Market Update: S&P 500 and Nasdaq Futures Rise After CPI Surprise

 

Investors are closely monitoring the stock market today as S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures show upward momentum following a surprising inflation report. Here are the key highlights:

  1. CPI Surprise: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February revealed a 3.2% year-over-year increase in consumer prices, indicating elevated inflation. This data is crucial for the Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate decision.

  2. Boeing Issues Impact Southwest: Southwest Airlines (LUV) announced capacity cuts due to ongoing problems with Boeing’s (BA) 737 Max planes. Investors are closely watching how this development affects the airline industry.

  3. Oracle’s Strong Earnings: Tech giant Oracle (ORCL) reported better-than-expected fiscal third-quarter earnings. Additionally, Oracle teased an upcoming announcement with chipmaker NVIDIA (NVDA), driving its stock price higher.

  4. Market Expectations: The CPI release influences market expectations regarding the timing of a potential Federal Reserve interest-rate cut. The “core” CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, rose by 0.4% in February and 3.1% year-on-year, surpassing estimates.

  5. Bitcoin Continues Rally: Bitcoin (BTC-USD) reached a record high of $72,120, driven by surging inflows into crypto assets. Some predict bitcoin could reach as high as $350,000 this year.

  6. Corporate Developments: Oracle’s cloud computing progress and collaboration with NVIDIA are boosting investor confidence.


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