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The Rate Cuts Are Over — Is a Hike Coming?

  July 23, 2026 Oil shocks, sticky inflation and a technical recession are pulling the Bank of Canada in opposite directions at once. For most of the past two years, the only question about the Bank of Canada was how far and how fast it would cut. The overnight rate fell from 5.00% to 2.25% between June 2024 and October 2025, one of the sharpest easing cycles in the Bank's history, and it has held there through six consecutive decisions since. That story is now over. The question on the table for the rest of 2026 isn't whether the Bank cuts again — it's whether the next move is actually a hike. Two conflicting signals, one Bank The case for staying put — or even cutting — comes from the growth side of the ledger. Statistics Canada data showed the economy contracted in both the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026, meeting the informal definition of a technical recession. That was enough to have some economists warning the Bank had no room to raise rates at a...
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Dow Tumbles Amidst Rising Yields and Global Unrest

 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average faced a significant downturn as geopolitical tensions and a sharp increase in Treasury yields rattled investors. The spike in yields came on the heels of unexpectedly robust retail sales data, which suggested that the Federal Reserve might delay anticipated interest rate cuts. This development has cast a shadow over the recent strong earnings reported by major banks like Goldman Sachs.

The market’s reaction was swift, with the Dow falling 248 points, or 0.7%, while the S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite also saw declines of 1.2% and 1.8%, respectively. The rise in Treasury yields, particularly the 10-Year Treasury jumping 11 basis points to 4.61%, indicates a shift in investor sentiment towards caution amidst economic growth and potential policy shifts.

As the global financial community monitors the unfolding events, the impact of these tensions and economic indicators will continue to play a critical role in shaping market dynamics in the days ahead.

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