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Bond Yields Are Nearing 5%: What It Means for Your Mortgage and HELOC

  Published September 11, 2026 Something is happening in the bond market this week that matters more to your wallet than the daily swings in the TSX. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note closed in on 5% on Friday — 4.95% , its highest level since 2023 and approaching territory not seen since 2007 — after climbing 18 basis points in a single week. Canadian bond yields have followed the same path: the 10-year Government of Canada bond hit its highest level in over two years earlier this month, and the 5-year bond — the one that actually sets your fixed mortgage rate — has drifted up to roughly 3.41%, about a quarter-point higher than it was a month ago. If you're renewing a mortgage, shopping for a HELOC, or just trying to figure out whether now is the moment to lock in, here's what's actually going on and what it means for your payments. Why bond yields, not the Bank of Canada, are driving fixed rates right now It's a common mix-up: people watch the Bank of Canada...
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Stock Market Update: Mixed Finish as Yields Rise in Q2 2024


The stock market kicked off the second quarter of 2024 with a mixed performance, as US treasury yields climbed. Here are the key highlights:

  1. S&P 500 ( ^GSPC): The S&P 500 index closed down 0.2%, reflecting the cautious sentiment among investors.

  2. Dow Jones Industrial Average ( ^DJI): The Dow Jones fell 0.6%, adding to the uncertainty in the market.

  3. Nasdaq Composite ( ^IXIC): The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite managed to close slightly higher, although it retreated from its earlier session highs.

  4. Bond Yields: The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) rose by 12 basis points to 4.32%, approaching its highest level of the year. This surge in yields raised questions about the economy’s acceleration and its potential impact on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions.

  5. Manufacturing Sector Expansion: Data released on Monday revealed that the US manufacturing sector is in its strongest position since 2022. The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing PMI indicated expansion for the first time since September 2022. Additionally, S&P Global reported that production hit a 22-month high last month, signaling continued economic strength.

  6. First Quarter Performance: Equities have started 2024 on a positive note. The S&P 500 has set 22 fresh closing records so far this year, marking its best first quarter since 2019. All three major averages have risen for five consecutive months.

  7. Upcoming Jobs Report: The highlight of the first week of Q2 is Friday’s jobs report, which will provide further insights into the economy’s health and serve as a crucial signal for the Federal Reserve.

In summary, while mixed market performance persists, investors remain watchful of economic indicators and central bank actions. Stay tuned for further updates as the quarter unfolds.


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