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5 Things to Know Today: BoC Hike Odds, Fixed Rates, Tariff Swap, $100 Oil & Budget Countdown (Oct. 25)

  Canadian Money Brief • Sunday, October 25, 2026 A big week for your wallet starts Wednesday. Here are the five things Canadians should know before it begins. 1 The Bank of Canada decides Wednesday, and markets lean toward a hike The Bank of Canada announces its rate decision at 9:45 a.m. ET on Wednesday, Oct. 28, alongside a new Monetary Policy Report. Prediction markets price roughly a 79% chance of a quarter-point hike to 2.50%, up sharply after Governor Tiff Macklem’s hawkish comments at the IMF meetings, though analysts remain split and some expect a “hawkish hold.” The U.S. Fed also decides that day. What it means for you: Variable-rate mortgage and HELOC holders feel it first. A 0.25-point hike works out to roughly $70 more per month on a $500,000 variable mortgage (25-year amortization), and prime would move from 4.45% to 4.70%. A hold means little change until the next decision on Dec. 9. 2 Fixed mortgage rates have already moved without the Bank Fixed rates follow bond ...
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Stock Market Update: Mixed Finish as Yields Rise in Q2 2024


The stock market kicked off the second quarter of 2024 with a mixed performance, as US treasury yields climbed. Here are the key highlights:

  1. S&P 500 ( ^GSPC): The S&P 500 index closed down 0.2%, reflecting the cautious sentiment among investors.

  2. Dow Jones Industrial Average ( ^DJI): The Dow Jones fell 0.6%, adding to the uncertainty in the market.

  3. Nasdaq Composite ( ^IXIC): The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite managed to close slightly higher, although it retreated from its earlier session highs.

  4. Bond Yields: The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) rose by 12 basis points to 4.32%, approaching its highest level of the year. This surge in yields raised questions about the economy’s acceleration and its potential impact on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions.

  5. Manufacturing Sector Expansion: Data released on Monday revealed that the US manufacturing sector is in its strongest position since 2022. The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing PMI indicated expansion for the first time since September 2022. Additionally, S&P Global reported that production hit a 22-month high last month, signaling continued economic strength.

  6. First Quarter Performance: Equities have started 2024 on a positive note. The S&P 500 has set 22 fresh closing records so far this year, marking its best first quarter since 2019. All three major averages have risen for five consecutive months.

  7. Upcoming Jobs Report: The highlight of the first week of Q2 is Friday’s jobs report, which will provide further insights into the economy’s health and serve as a crucial signal for the Federal Reserve.

In summary, while mixed market performance persists, investors remain watchful of economic indicators and central bank actions. Stay tuned for further updates as the quarter unfolds.


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