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5 Things to Know Today: BoC Hike Odds, Fixed Rates, Tariff Swap, $100 Oil & Budget Countdown (Oct. 25)

  Canadian Money Brief • Sunday, October 25, 2026 A big week for your wallet starts Wednesday. Here are the five things Canadians should know before it begins. 1 The Bank of Canada decides Wednesday, and markets lean toward a hike The Bank of Canada announces its rate decision at 9:45 a.m. ET on Wednesday, Oct. 28, alongside a new Monetary Policy Report. Prediction markets price roughly a 79% chance of a quarter-point hike to 2.50%, up sharply after Governor Tiff Macklem’s hawkish comments at the IMF meetings, though analysts remain split and some expect a “hawkish hold.” The U.S. Fed also decides that day. What it means for you: Variable-rate mortgage and HELOC holders feel it first. A 0.25-point hike works out to roughly $70 more per month on a $500,000 variable mortgage (25-year amortization), and prime would move from 4.45% to 4.70%. A hold means little change until the next decision on Dec. 9. 2 Fixed mortgage rates have already moved without the Bank Fixed rates follow bond ...
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Dow’s Remarkable Rally: An 8-Day Streak of Triumphs

 

In an impressive display of resilience, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has secured its eighth consecutive day of gains, a streak not seen since early 2019. This sustained upward movement comes amid growing optimism that the Federal Reserve may introduce a rate cut sooner than anticipated.

Investors have been closely monitoring a series of speeches from Federal Reserve officials, seeking confirmation of the burgeoning belief that a rate reduction is imminent. This sentiment has been bolstered by recent indicators suggesting a cooling labor market, which could prompt a more accommodative monetary policy stance.

The Dow’s latest climb of roughly 0.2% is part of a broader recovery from April’s market slump, with the S&P 500 also advancing towards a record high. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite has paralleled this ascent, albeit at a more modest pace.

On the corporate front, standout performances include TSMC, whose shares surged following a 60% sales increase in April, driven by persistent demand for AI and a resurgence in consumer electronics.

As the market heads into the weekend, all eyes are on the upcoming consumer price index report, which will offer further insights into the Federal Reserve’s potential rate cut trajectory. Investors remain hopeful that a dovish turn in policy could sustain the current rally, propelling the Dow and its counterparts to new heights.

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