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The Fed Decides Wednesday — Here's What It Means for Your Mortgage, the Loonie, and Your RRSP

  Monday, July 27, 2026 The U.S. Federal Reserve hands down its rate decision at 2 p.m. ET on July 29. For most Canadians it will feel like background noise. It isn't — here's the plain-language version of why it touches your mortgage, your cross-border spending, and whatever's sitting in your RRSP. The short version: Markets are pricing roughly a two-in-three chance the Fed holds its rate at 3.50%–3.75% on Wednesday. That's not the story. The story is that this is one of the least certain "sure thing" holds in years — and Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET could matter more than the decision itself. Why this meeting is different The Fed has held its benchmark rate steady at 3.50%–3.75% through every meeting so far in 2026. On paper, Wednesday should be more of the same. Under the hood, it's messier. Persistent inflation, running well above the Fed's 2% target for a fifth straight year, has kept a rate hike on the table. The oil-...
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Retail Sales Flat in April, Missing Expectations

American shoppers are showing signs of spending fatigue, with retail sales data for April coming in sharply below expectations. According to the Commerce Department, U.S. retail sales were unchanged from March, missing the anticipated 0.4% increase that economists surveyed by the Journal had expected. This slowdown follows a 0.6% month-over-month increase seen in March, highlighting concerns about the state of the consumer amid sticky inflation and higher interest rates.

Key Points:

  • Flat Retail Sales: In April, retail sales remained stagnant, failing to meet the projected growth.
  • Excluding Auto and Gas: Sales declined by 0.1%, falling short of the expected 0.1% increase.
  • Sector Performance:
    • Nonstore retailers led the declines, dropping 1.2% from the previous month.
    • Sporting goods and hobby stores also declined by 0.9%.
    • Clothing and accessories stores saw a 1.6% rise in sales.
    • Gasoline sales picked up by 3.1%.
  • Economic Context: Economists are closely monitoring consumer spending amid the Federal Reserve’s pivot to keep interest rates high for longer than expected.

This situation underscores the delicate balance between consumer demand, inflation, and monetary policy. As we await further context, it’s clear that retail sales are a critical indicator to watch in the current economic landscape.


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