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Thanksgiving Dinner Costs 10% More. So Why Is Grocery Inflation Only 2.8%?

  Thanksgiving is tomorrow, and if you're still planning the grocery run, the numbers are not in your favour. Dalhousie University's Agri-Food Analytics Lab prices a turkey dinner for four at $35.72 this year, up 10% from $32.48 in 2025. Here's the catch: Statistics Canada says grocery prices rose just 2.8% in August, and that was the first time in more than two years that food inflation came in below the overall rate (3.0%). So why does the holiday table feel so much pricier than the grocery aisle overall? The turkey is doing most of the damage Dalhousie's basket covers a 7-lb whole turkey plus potatoes, carrots, dinner rolls, pumpkin pie, cranberries, stuffing and gravy. Here's how the pieces moved: Item (dinner for four) 2025 2026 Change Turkey dinner, total $32.48 $35.72 +10.0% The turkey itself (7 lb) $10.43 $12.53 +20.1% Everything else (sides, pie) $22.05 $23.19 +5.2% Ham dinner, total $34.87 $36.37 +4.3% Source: Dalhousie Agri-Food Analytics Lab (totals, t...
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Retail Sales Flat in April, Missing Expectations

American shoppers are showing signs of spending fatigue, with retail sales data for April coming in sharply below expectations. According to the Commerce Department, U.S. retail sales were unchanged from March, missing the anticipated 0.4% increase that economists surveyed by the Journal had expected. This slowdown follows a 0.6% month-over-month increase seen in March, highlighting concerns about the state of the consumer amid sticky inflation and higher interest rates.

Key Points:

  • Flat Retail Sales: In April, retail sales remained stagnant, failing to meet the projected growth.
  • Excluding Auto and Gas: Sales declined by 0.1%, falling short of the expected 0.1% increase.
  • Sector Performance:
    • Nonstore retailers led the declines, dropping 1.2% from the previous month.
    • Sporting goods and hobby stores also declined by 0.9%.
    • Clothing and accessories stores saw a 1.6% rise in sales.
    • Gasoline sales picked up by 3.1%.
  • Economic Context: Economists are closely monitoring consumer spending amid the Federal Reserve’s pivot to keep interest rates high for longer than expected.

This situation underscores the delicate balance between consumer demand, inflation, and monetary policy. As we await further context, it’s clear that retail sales are a critical indicator to watch in the current economic landscape.


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