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Monday’s CPI Could Decide Your Next Mortgage Payment

  Canada lost 68,000 jobs in September. Inflation is sitting at 3%. The Bank of Canada has to decide on October 28 which of those facts matters more, and on Monday morning one more number lands to help it choose. If you carry a variable-rate mortgage, a HELOC or a renewal this winter, that number has a price tag. Two reports pulling in opposite directions The jobs data came first. Statistics Canada reported on October 9 that employment fell by 68,000 in September, pushing the unemployment rate to 6.5% from 6.4%. It followed a drop of about 42,000 in August, which means more than half of the 181,000 jobs gained between April and July have now been wiped out. Ontario shed 20,000 positions on its own. Markets reacted within hours: the odds of a quarter-point Bank of Canada hike on October 28 dropped to roughly 25% from about 40%, according to LSEG data reported by Reuters. Inflation is telling the opposite story. The consumer price index rose 3.0% year over year in August, matching Ju...
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Stock Market Today: Dow Nears 40,000 as Stocks Regroup Near Record Highs


US stocks remained relatively unchanged on Thursday following a record-setting rally. Signs of cooling inflation have fueled expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September. Here are the key highlights:

  1. Market Performance:

    • The S&P 500 (^GSPC) edged slightly higher after closing above 5,300 for the first time.
    • The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) were trading near the flatline.
    • All three major indices ended Wednesday at all-time highs, leaving the Dow less than 100 points away from breaking through the 40,000 mark.

  2. Inflation and Rate Cut Speculation:

    • April’s tepid consumer inflation reading brought relief to a market anticipating higher interest rates. Trader bets on a Fed rate cut in September rose to over 70%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
    • Investors also turned to bonds, pushing the 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) down to near one-month lows at around 4.33%.

  3. Corporate News:

    • Walmart (WMT) posted better-than-expected quarterly profit, revenue, and same-store sales. The US retail giant’s shares surged over 5% as it raised its full-year forecasts.
    • Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway (BKR-B) revealed a $6.7 billion stake in Chubb (CB), ending months of suspense over a position kept concealed in regulatory filings. Chubb’s shares climbed about 8%.

  4. Insights from Walmart’s CFO:

    • Walmart’s CFO, John David Rainey, highlighted deflation in certain product categories but not disinflation. Sales in May started strong, benefiting from investments in same-day delivery and buy online, pick up in stores technology.
    • Walmart’s market cap crossed the $500 billion level.

In summary, the stock market remains resilient, with investors closely monitoring inflation trends and anticipating further Fed actions. The Dow’s march toward 40,000 continues, fueled by positive corporate earnings and strategic investments.


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