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5 Things to Know Today: BoC Hike Bets, TSX Slide, Oil Near $100 (Oct. 23)

  Canadian Money Brief • Friday, October 23, 2026 The Bank of Canada decision is five days away, the TSX gave back most of Wednesday's gains, and oil is flirting with US$100 again. Here are the five things Canadian wallets need to know today. 1. Markets Lean Toward a Bank of Canada Hike on Oct. 28 A decision that looked like a ninth straight hold is now a genuine coin flip with a hawkish tilt. After Governor Tiff Macklem warned that there is "no resolution in sight" for the Middle East conflict, BMO and Desjardins flipped to a hike call, Scotiabank firmed up its call and Goldman Sachs joined them, all looking for a quarter-point move to 2.50%. Overnight swaps priced about an 87% chance of a hike earlier this week, though other economists still argue for a hold, pointing to September's 68,000 job losses and a 6.5% unemployment rate. What it means for you: A quarter-point hike adds roughly $21 a month in interest for every $100,000 of variable-rate borrowing (HELOCs an...
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US Futures Dip as Investors Seek Inspiration


The US stock market futures are showing a slight decline today as investors search for inspiration amid mixed signals. Let’s break down the key points:

  1. Rate-Cut and AI Growth Hopes Take a Hit:

    • The recent optimism surrounding rate cuts and artificial intelligence (AI) growth has waned. Federal Reserve officials have emphasized that interest rates will remain higher for longer due to persistent inflation concerns.
    • High yields on 10-year Treasury bonds have weighed on growth stocks, particularly megacap Big Tech companies.

  2. Arm’s Revenue Forecast Dampens AI Enthusiasm:

    • Arm, a major chip designer, provided a downbeat annual revenue forecast. This has cast doubt on the AI growth narrative that had previously boosted chip stocks.
    • Shares of Arm dropped 9% in pre-market trading, and sector peers Nvidia and AMD also saw slight declines.

  3. Earnings Season Continues:

    • Warner Bros. Discovery reported earnings that missed estimates, failing to provide support for investors seeking positive catalysts.
    • Other companies, including Roblox and Yelp, are also reporting earnings today as the season winds down.

  4. Macro Front Updates:

    • Keep an eye on weekly jobless claims data, which is due later today.
    • San Francisco Fed Chief Mary Daly is scheduled to speak, potentially providing further insights.

In summary, the stock market remains cautious, with investors closely monitoring earnings reports and macroeconomic indicators. The path forward depends on how various factors play out in the coming days.


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