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5 Things to Know Today: BoC Hike Odds Near 80%, Oil Tops US$100, Loonie Hits 5-Week High

  Canadian Money Brief  |  Saturday, October 24, 2026 The Bank of Canada is expected to raise rates on Wednesday, oil is back above US$100 and stocks slipped on AI worries. Here are the five things to know this Saturday, and what each one means for your wallet. 1 The Bank of Canada is widely expected to hike on Wednesday Markets are putting roughly an 80% chance on a quarter-point increase at the Bank of Canada’s Oct. 28 decision, which would lift the policy rate from 2.25% to 2.50%. A majority of economists polled by Reuters also expect a second hike by the end of March. The shift followed hawkish comments from Governor Tiff Macklem about a higher inflation outlook driven by oil. What it means for you Every 0.25-point increase adds about $250 a year (roughly $21 a month) for each $100,000 of prime-linked debt, such as a variable-rate mortgage or HELOC. Fixed-rate holders are not hit directly, but renewals are being priced off higher bond yields. Savers may see HISA and...

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Canada Posts $1 Billion Trade Deficit in April

 

Canada recorded a merchandise trade deficit of $1.0 billion in April, according to Statistics Canada. This result follows a revised deficit of $2.0 billion for March, which was initially reported as $2.3 billion.

Here are the key points:

  • Exports:
    • Total exports in April increased by 2.6% to $64.4 billion.
    • Exports of energy products rose by 2.7%, with natural gas exports surging by 60.1%.
    • Crude oil exports also gained 3.0%.
    • Metal and non-metallic mineral products exports rose by 4.7%, driven by unwrought gold, silver, and platinum group metals.
  • Imports:
    • Total imports rose by 1.1% to $65.5 billion in April.
    • Imports of motor vehicles and parts increased by 4.2%.
    • Imports of aircraft and other transportation equipment and parts surged by 23.7%, including the delivery of several ships.
  • Trade in Services:
    • Canada’s monthly international trade in services deficit increased to $1.1 billion in April.
    • Imports of services rose by 1.1% to $18.0 billion, while exports of services remained essentially unchanged at $16.9 billion.
  • Combined Trade Deficit:
    • When goods and services are combined, Canada’s total trade deficit with the world was $2.2 billion in April, compared to $2.9 billion in March.

Economists expect further export gains due to higher oil pipeline capacity and one-off events in the auto sector, while imports may decline due to weak domestic demand and elevated inventory levels.


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