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5 Things to Know Today — September 22, 2026

  September 22, 2026 BoC hike odds reach a coin flip. Oil retreats from four-month highs. Trump's Belarus potash play draws fire. A new federal bill speeds up major projects — with strings attached. Here's what moves your money today. 1. BoC October Hike Is Now a Coin Flip The Bank of Canada next meets October 28 , and markets are evenly split on whether it will raise rates for the first time since cutting to 2.25%. The whiplash is largely imported: after the U.S. Federal Reserve hiked 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00% on September 16 in a unanimous 12-0 vote — the first American rate increase since July 2023 — market-implied odds of a matching BoC move jumped from below 10% to roughly 60% in two weeks, according to LSEG Data & Analytics. Before the BoC's September 2 hold, odds of a hold sat at 94%. The 175-basis-point gap between the BoC (2.25%) and the Fed (3.75–4.00%) is the widest since 2022, which puts direct downward pressure on the loonie and upward pressure on Ca...
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Hezbollah Attacks Israeli Military Sites with Rockets and Drones

 

Lebanon’s Hezbollah has escalated hostilities on Lebanon’s southern border by launching rockets and weaponized drones at nine Israeli military sites. This coordinated attack comes in retaliation for an Israeli strike that killed a senior Hezbollah field commander. The group fired volleys of Katyusha and Falaq rockets at six Israeli military locations, with more than 100 rockets fired simultaneously. Additionally, Hezbollah launched attack drones at Israel’s northern command, an intelligence headquarters, and a military barracks. This drone attack, involving at least 30 drones, marks the group’s largest to date in the ongoing conflict. Tensions between Hezbollah and Israel have intensified since the eruption of the Gaza war in October, with both sides trading fire. Thursday’s attack is a direct response to the killing of the Hezbollah commander and follows at least eight previous retaliatory attacks on Wednesday.


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