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The Rate Cuts Are Over — Is a Hike Coming?

  July 23, 2026 Oil shocks, sticky inflation and a technical recession are pulling the Bank of Canada in opposite directions at once. For most of the past two years, the only question about the Bank of Canada was how far and how fast it would cut. The overnight rate fell from 5.00% to 2.25% between June 2024 and October 2025, one of the sharpest easing cycles in the Bank's history, and it has held there through six consecutive decisions since. That story is now over. The question on the table for the rest of 2026 isn't whether the Bank cuts again — it's whether the next move is actually a hike. Two conflicting signals, one Bank The case for staying put — or even cutting — comes from the growth side of the ledger. Statistics Canada data showed the economy contracted in both the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026, meeting the informal definition of a technical recession. That was enough to have some economists warning the Bank had no room to raise rates at a...
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May Housing Market: Sales Decline Amid Record High Prices

 

In May, sales of previously owned homes declined for the third consecutive month as prices hit an all-time high. Year-over-year sales were down by 2.8%¹. The median home price in the US reached $419,300, contributing to the slowdown in home sales due to elevated interest rates. 

Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), expressed surprise at the lack of a spring recovery. Only the Midwest saw an increase in home sales, while other regions remained flat or experienced monthly declines. Despite the market's softer conditions, homes still received multiple offers, and first-time buyers' share of purchases surpassed 30% for the second straight month³. It's a complex market situation, but I hope this summary sheds some light on the current trends! 




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