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5 Things to Know Today: BoC Hike Odds, Fixed Rates, Tariff Swap, $100 Oil & Budget Countdown (Oct. 25)

  Canadian Money Brief • Sunday, October 25, 2026 A big week for your wallet starts Wednesday. Here are the five things Canadians should know before it begins. 1 The Bank of Canada decides Wednesday, and markets lean toward a hike The Bank of Canada announces its rate decision at 9:45 a.m. ET on Wednesday, Oct. 28, alongside a new Monetary Policy Report. Prediction markets price roughly a 79% chance of a quarter-point hike to 2.50%, up sharply after Governor Tiff Macklem’s hawkish comments at the IMF meetings, though analysts remain split and some expect a “hawkish hold.” The U.S. Fed also decides that day. What it means for you: Variable-rate mortgage and HELOC holders feel it first. A 0.25-point hike works out to roughly $70 more per month on a $500,000 variable mortgage (25-year amortization), and prime would move from 4.45% to 4.70%. A hold means little change until the next decision on Dec. 9. 2 Fixed mortgage rates have already moved without the Bank Fixed rates follow bond ...
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Tech Stocks Decline Amid “Triple Witching” and Nvidia’s Rebalance


The stock market experienced a pullback as tech stocks faced pressure, and a significant options expiration loomed. Here are the key points:

  1. Tech Under Pressure:

    • Tech stocks, including megacap companies, declined.
    • Nvidia Corp. led the losses in this segment.

  2. Triple Witching:

    • Wall Street faced a quarterly event known as “triple witching.”
    • Derivatives contracts tied to stocks, index options, and futures were set to mature.
    • About $5.5 trillion in contracts were expiring, compelling traders to adjust positions.

  3. Volatility and Vulnerability:

    • Short interest in major equity ETFs hit record lows.
    • Lack of bearish investors signaled vulnerability to negative news.
    • Implied volatility on S&P 500 options remained low.

  4. Nvidia’s Rebalance:

    • Nvidia’s sharp rally prompted the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK) to rebalance.
    • Over $10 billion of Nvidia shares were acquired, while Apple’s weight was significantly reduced.

  5. AI Frenzy and Inflows:

    • Nvidia’s AI-related surge made it briefly the world’s most valuable company.
    • Record inflows flowed into tech funds, driven by the ongoing artificial intelligence frenzy.

In summary, tech stocks faced headwinds, and market participants closely watched Nvidia’s earnings and rebalancing dynamics. The landscape remains dynamic, with implications for investors and traders alike.


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