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The Rate Cuts Are Over — Is a Hike Coming?

  July 23, 2026 Oil shocks, sticky inflation and a technical recession are pulling the Bank of Canada in opposite directions at once. For most of the past two years, the only question about the Bank of Canada was how far and how fast it would cut. The overnight rate fell from 5.00% to 2.25% between June 2024 and October 2025, one of the sharpest easing cycles in the Bank's history, and it has held there through six consecutive decisions since. That story is now over. The question on the table for the rest of 2026 isn't whether the Bank cuts again — it's whether the next move is actually a hike. Two conflicting signals, one Bank The case for staying put — or even cutting — comes from the growth side of the ledger. Statistics Canada data showed the economy contracted in both the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026, meeting the informal definition of a technical recession. That was enough to have some economists warning the Bank had no room to raise rates at a...
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Wall Street Leans Modestly Lower Ahead of Inflation Data

 

Wall Street opened with a slight dip today as investors eagerly await Friday’s inflation update from the government. Here are the key highlights:

  1. Corporate Earnings Digestion:

    • Markets are processing recent corporate earnings reports.
    • FedEx (FDX) surged 14.6% after beating Wall Street’s Q4 sales and profit targets.
    • Chipmaker Nvidia (NVDA) rebounded, recovering from recent losses.

  2. Inflation Update Anticipation:

    • The government’s report on inflation, closely monitored by the Federal Reserve, will influence interest rate decisions.
    • Investors hope for timely rate cuts to prevent a recession or inflation resurgence.

  3. Global Markets:

    • European markets (DAX, FTSE, CAC 40) dipped, while Japan’s Nikkei rose 1.3%.
    • Tokyo Electron and Advantest Corp. gained due to enthusiasm over Nvidia and AI.

  4. Currency Watch:

    • The dollar edged higher against the yen, nearing the 160 yen level.
    • Tokyo officials warn of potential market intervention.

Stay tuned for Friday’s crucial inflation data—the Fed’s next move hangs in the balance.


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