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The Rate Cuts Are Over — Is a Hike Coming?

  July 23, 2026 Oil shocks, sticky inflation and a technical recession are pulling the Bank of Canada in opposite directions at once. For most of the past two years, the only question about the Bank of Canada was how far and how fast it would cut. The overnight rate fell from 5.00% to 2.25% between June 2024 and October 2025, one of the sharpest easing cycles in the Bank's history, and it has held there through six consecutive decisions since. That story is now over. The question on the table for the rest of 2026 isn't whether the Bank cuts again — it's whether the next move is actually a hike. Two conflicting signals, one Bank The case for staying put — or even cutting — comes from the growth side of the ledger. Statistics Canada data showed the economy contracted in both the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026, meeting the informal definition of a technical recession. That was enough to have some economists warning the Bank had no room to raise rates at a...
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Asian Stocks Mixed Amid Volatile Yen After Wall Street Climbs on Inflation Report

 

Global stocks exhibited mixed performance today, with the Japanese yen experiencing fluctuations following the latest U.S. update on inflation. Wall Street’s growing belief in potential relief on interest rates as early as September influenced market dynamics.

Key Points:

  • Yen Volatility: The yen oscillated between gains and losses, losing some ground against the U.S. dollar. Speculation arose that Japanese authorities might have intervened to amplify the impact of milder U.S. inflation data.

  • U.S. Futures: S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures edged 0.1% higher, reflecting optimism about interest rate relief.

  • European Markets: Germany’s DAX rose 0.3%, the CAC 40 in Paris gained 0.8%, and London’s FTSE 100 added 0.4%.

  • Asian Markets:

    • Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 index declined 2.5%.
    • Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index climbed 2.6%.
    • Shanghai Composite index remained nearly unchanged.
    • Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.9%.
    • South Korea’s Kospi slipped 1.2%.
    • Taiwan’s Taiex declined 2%.

  • Data Releases: Watch for the U.S. producer price index and inflation readings from Germany, France, and Italy later today.

  • Wall Street: Despite pullbacks for some tech giants, four out of five stocks in the S&P 500 index climbed.



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