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Lock In or Wait? Why Two Big Banks Say Rates Are Going Up in October

  Published September 2, 2026 The Bank of Canada did exactly what all 35 economists in Reuters' latest poll expected today: it held its overnight rate at 2.25% for a sixth straight decision, keeping the prime rate at 4.45%. Bond markets had priced in barely a 3% chance of anything else. What's not settled is what happens next — and on that question, Canada's biggest banks are more split than they've been all year. Four of the Big Six expect the Bank to sit tight through the end of 2026. Two expect it to start hiking as soon as October. If you're renewing a mortgage in the next few months, that gap isn't academic — it's the difference between locking in now and gambling on a rate cycle turning against you. The Split, Bank by Bank Here's where the six largest banks stand on where the overnight rate lands by the end of 2026: Bank Year-end 2026 call Stance BMO 2.25% (hold) Hold camp CIBC 2.25% (hold) Hold camp RBC 2.25% (hold) Hold camp TD 2.25% (hold) Hold...
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Asian Stocks Mixed Amid Volatile Yen After Wall Street Climbs on Inflation Report

 

Global stocks exhibited mixed performance today, with the Japanese yen experiencing fluctuations following the latest U.S. update on inflation. Wall Street’s growing belief in potential relief on interest rates as early as September influenced market dynamics.

Key Points:

  • Yen Volatility: The yen oscillated between gains and losses, losing some ground against the U.S. dollar. Speculation arose that Japanese authorities might have intervened to amplify the impact of milder U.S. inflation data.

  • U.S. Futures: S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures edged 0.1% higher, reflecting optimism about interest rate relief.

  • European Markets: Germany’s DAX rose 0.3%, the CAC 40 in Paris gained 0.8%, and London’s FTSE 100 added 0.4%.

  • Asian Markets:

    • Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 index declined 2.5%.
    • Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index climbed 2.6%.
    • Shanghai Composite index remained nearly unchanged.
    • Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.9%.
    • South Korea’s Kospi slipped 1.2%.
    • Taiwan’s Taiex declined 2%.

  • Data Releases: Watch for the U.S. producer price index and inflation readings from Germany, France, and Italy later today.

  • Wall Street: Despite pullbacks for some tech giants, four out of five stocks in the S&P 500 index climbed.



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