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5 Things to Know Today: BoC Hike Odds, Fixed Rates, Tariff Swap, $100 Oil & Budget Countdown (Oct. 25)

  Canadian Money Brief • Sunday, October 25, 2026 A big week for your wallet starts Wednesday. Here are the five things Canadians should know before it begins. 1 The Bank of Canada decides Wednesday, and markets lean toward a hike The Bank of Canada announces its rate decision at 9:45 a.m. ET on Wednesday, Oct. 28, alongside a new Monetary Policy Report. Prediction markets price roughly a 79% chance of a quarter-point hike to 2.50%, up sharply after Governor Tiff Macklem’s hawkish comments at the IMF meetings, though analysts remain split and some expect a “hawkish hold.” The U.S. Fed also decides that day. What it means for you: Variable-rate mortgage and HELOC holders feel it first. A 0.25-point hike works out to roughly $70 more per month on a $500,000 variable mortgage (25-year amortization), and prime would move from 4.45% to 4.70%. A hold means little change until the next decision on Dec. 9. 2 Fixed mortgage rates have already moved without the Bank Fixed rates follow bond ...
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Dow Hits 40,000 for the First Time as Bull Market Accelerates

Wall Street advanced into uncharted territory on Thursday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average topping 40,000 for the first time after a blowout earnings report from Walmart cast a positive light on the U.S. economy. The Dow rose about 0.4%, closing at a new all-time high above the 40,000 threshold. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 added about 0.3%, just below a record finish, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite gained 0.4%.

Investors are closely watching second-quarter results from major U.S. banks, including Goldman Sachs, which reported a profit surge of 150% amid investment banking strength. Additionally, BlackRock’s profit beat estimates as assets under management reached a record of $10.6 trillion.

The market’s focus also turned to the potential fallout from an assassination attempt on presidential candidate Donald Trump during a rally. Bets have increased on a win in November’s presidential election for the Republican frontrunner, who is seen as likely to cut taxes, raise trade tariffs, and ease up on regulation.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks reinforced market expectations that rate cuts will arrive as soon as September, further influencing investor sentiment. Overall, it’s a dynamic time in the markets, and the Dow’s milestone reflects the ongoing bull market.

Remember to stay informed and keep an eye on market developments!

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