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5 Things to Know Today: BoC Hike Odds, Fixed Rates, Tariff Swap, $100 Oil & Budget Countdown (Oct. 25)

  Canadian Money Brief • Sunday, October 25, 2026 A big week for your wallet starts Wednesday. Here are the five things Canadians should know before it begins. 1 The Bank of Canada decides Wednesday, and markets lean toward a hike The Bank of Canada announces its rate decision at 9:45 a.m. ET on Wednesday, Oct. 28, alongside a new Monetary Policy Report. Prediction markets price roughly a 79% chance of a quarter-point hike to 2.50%, up sharply after Governor Tiff Macklem’s hawkish comments at the IMF meetings, though analysts remain split and some expect a “hawkish hold.” The U.S. Fed also decides that day. What it means for you: Variable-rate mortgage and HELOC holders feel it first. A 0.25-point hike works out to roughly $70 more per month on a $500,000 variable mortgage (25-year amortization), and prime would move from 4.45% to 4.70%. A hold means little change until the next decision on Dec. 9. 2 Fixed mortgage rates have already moved without the Bank Fixed rates follow bond ...
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Israel Expands Evacuation Orders Following Deadly Strike on Gaza School Shelter

 

Increased Evacuations in Gaza: The Israeli military has broadened its evacuation orders in southern Gaza after a deadly airstrike on a school-turned-shelter in the north. The strike resulted in the deaths of at least 80 Palestinians, according to local health authorities.

Targeting Militants: Israel stated that the airstrike targeted a militant command post, killing at least 19 fighters. The military has accused Hamas and other militants of using civilian areas to launch attacks.

Humanitarian Crisis: The ongoing conflict has displaced the vast majority of Gaza’s 2.3 million residents, many of whom have sought refuge in overcrowded shelters and tent camps.

Continued Conflict: The war, which began 10 months ago, has led to significant destruction and a staggering humanitarian crisis in Gaza. The Palestinian death toll is nearing 40,000.

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