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Bond Yields Are Nearing 5%: What It Means for Your Mortgage and HELOC

  Published September 11, 2026 Something is happening in the bond market this week that matters more to your wallet than the daily swings in the TSX. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note closed in on 5% on Friday — 4.95% , its highest level since 2023 and approaching territory not seen since 2007 — after climbing 18 basis points in a single week. Canadian bond yields have followed the same path: the 10-year Government of Canada bond hit its highest level in over two years earlier this month, and the 5-year bond — the one that actually sets your fixed mortgage rate — has drifted up to roughly 3.41%, about a quarter-point higher than it was a month ago. If you're renewing a mortgage, shopping for a HELOC, or just trying to figure out whether now is the moment to lock in, here's what's actually going on and what it means for your payments. Why bond yields, not the Bank of Canada, are driving fixed rates right now It's a common mix-up: people watch the Bank of Canada...
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TSX Futures Slide Amid Global Market Turmoil

 

Futures linked to Canada’s main stock index took a tumble on Tuesday, echoing the brutal sell-off seen across global markets on Monday. The trigger? Recession fears in the United States.

September futures on the S&P/TSX index were down 1.8% at 6:48 a.m. ET (10:48 GMT). Investors worldwide scrambled toward safe-haven assets after weaker U.S. economic data last week raised concerns about a recession in the world’s largest economy.

While investor sentiment was partially soothed by a rebound in U.S. services sector activity and signals of rate cuts from Federal Reserve policymakers, the benchmark U.S. S&P 500 and Nasdaq both closed 3% lower on Monday.

Canadian markets were closed for a holiday, but attention remains on domestic employment figures due later this week and a host of Fed policymakers scheduled to speak throughout the month.

In corporate news, Suncor Energy and iA Financial are set to report their quarterly figures after the closing bell today.

Commodities at 6:48 a.m. ET:

  • Gold futures: $2,423 (+0.5%)
  • U.S. crude: $73.32 (+0.5%)
  • Brent crude: $76.62 (+0.4%)

Stay tuned for further updates as the market volatility continues.





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