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June Jobs Report: What It Means for the Bank of Canada's July 15 Decision

  Friday, July 10, 2026 Statistics Canada releases its June Labour Force Survey today, and the timing couldn't matter more. This is the last major economic data point before the Bank of Canada's next interest rate decision on July 15, 2026 — and whichever way the jobs numbers break, they'll shape what happens to borrowing costs for the rest of the summer. What Economists Are Expecting Consensus forecasts point to a modest but positive jobs report. Economists expect Canada added around 10,000 jobs in June, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 6.6%. That would follow a much stronger May, when the economy added 88,000 jobs and the unemployment rate actually fell by 0.3 percentage points. In other words, June's report is expected to show a cooling-off after May's surprise strength — not a reversal, but a return to a more modest pace of hiring. Indicator May 2026 June 2026 (Forecast) Net Employment Change +88,000 jobs +10,000 jobs (expected) Unemployment Rate 6....
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TSX Futures Slide Amid Global Market Turmoil

 

Futures linked to Canada’s main stock index took a tumble on Tuesday, echoing the brutal sell-off seen across global markets on Monday. The trigger? Recession fears in the United States.

September futures on the S&P/TSX index were down 1.8% at 6:48 a.m. ET (10:48 GMT). Investors worldwide scrambled toward safe-haven assets after weaker U.S. economic data last week raised concerns about a recession in the world’s largest economy.

While investor sentiment was partially soothed by a rebound in U.S. services sector activity and signals of rate cuts from Federal Reserve policymakers, the benchmark U.S. S&P 500 and Nasdaq both closed 3% lower on Monday.

Canadian markets were closed for a holiday, but attention remains on domestic employment figures due later this week and a host of Fed policymakers scheduled to speak throughout the month.

In corporate news, Suncor Energy and iA Financial are set to report their quarterly figures after the closing bell today.

Commodities at 6:48 a.m. ET:

  • Gold futures: $2,423 (+0.5%)
  • U.S. crude: $73.32 (+0.5%)
  • Brent crude: $76.62 (+0.4%)

Stay tuned for further updates as the market volatility continues.





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