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June Jobs Report: What It Means for the Bank of Canada's July 15 Decision

  Friday, July 10, 2026 Statistics Canada releases its June Labour Force Survey today, and the timing couldn't matter more. This is the last major economic data point before the Bank of Canada's next interest rate decision on July 15, 2026 — and whichever way the jobs numbers break, they'll shape what happens to borrowing costs for the rest of the summer. What Economists Are Expecting Consensus forecasts point to a modest but positive jobs report. Economists expect Canada added around 10,000 jobs in June, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 6.6%. That would follow a much stronger May, when the economy added 88,000 jobs and the unemployment rate actually fell by 0.3 percentage points. In other words, June's report is expected to show a cooling-off after May's surprise strength — not a reversal, but a return to a more modest pace of hiring. Indicator May 2026 June 2026 (Forecast) Net Employment Change +88,000 jobs +10,000 jobs (expected) Unemployment Rate 6....
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Canadian Unemployment Rate Falls to 6.5% as Job Market Surges

 

In a surprising turn of events, Canada’s labour market exceeded expectations in September, adding a net 47,000 jobs. This surge in employment led to a drop in the unemployment rate to 6.5%, according to the latest data from Statistics Canada.

This marks the first decline in the unemployment rate since January, driven primarily by significant gains in full-time employment, particularly among youth and women aged 25 to 54. The robust job growth highlights the resilience of the Canadian economy amidst global economic uncertainties.

Economists had anticipated a more modest increase in employment, making this development a positive indicator for the country’s economic health. The data suggests that sectors such as healthcare, education, and professional services saw the most significant job additions.

As Canada continues to navigate post-pandemic recovery, these employment gains provide a hopeful outlook for sustained economic growth and stability.


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