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5 Things to Know Today — September 22, 2026

  September 22, 2026 BoC hike odds reach a coin flip. Oil retreats from four-month highs. Trump's Belarus potash play draws fire. A new federal bill speeds up major projects — with strings attached. Here's what moves your money today. 1. BoC October Hike Is Now a Coin Flip The Bank of Canada next meets October 28 , and markets are evenly split on whether it will raise rates for the first time since cutting to 2.25%. The whiplash is largely imported: after the U.S. Federal Reserve hiked 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00% on September 16 in a unanimous 12-0 vote — the first American rate increase since July 2023 — market-implied odds of a matching BoC move jumped from below 10% to roughly 60% in two weeks, according to LSEG Data & Analytics. Before the BoC's September 2 hold, odds of a hold sat at 94%. The 175-basis-point gap between the BoC (2.25%) and the Fed (3.75–4.00%) is the widest since 2022, which puts direct downward pressure on the loonie and upward pressure on Ca...
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Markets Surge on Positive U.S. Retail Data


The stock markets opened with a bang today as both the TSX and the S&P 500 reached record highs, buoyed by encouraging U.S. retail data.

The S&P 500 climbed by 1.2%, closing at 5,308.15, while the TSX Composite Index rose by 41.42 points to settle at 22,284.76. This surge was driven by strong performances in the technology and utility sectors, reflecting investor optimism following a favorable U.S. retail sales report.

The U.S. retail data showed a robust increase in consumer spending, which has been a key indicator of economic health. This positive sentiment was further bolstered by lower-than-expected inflation figures, providing a double dose of good news for the markets.

Kathrin Forrest, an equity investment specialist at Capital Group, noted, "It’s been a really constructive day for equities, certainly in North America. The technology sector, in particular, ended the week with a strong rally, led by semiconductor companies".

As investors continue to digest these positive economic indicators, the outlook for the markets remains optimistic. The combination of strong retail sales and manageable inflation suggests a resilient economy, which is likely to keep the markets buoyant in the near term.


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