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The Rate Cuts Are Over — Is a Hike Coming?

  July 23, 2026 Oil shocks, sticky inflation and a technical recession are pulling the Bank of Canada in opposite directions at once. For most of the past two years, the only question about the Bank of Canada was how far and how fast it would cut. The overnight rate fell from 5.00% to 2.25% between June 2024 and October 2025, one of the sharpest easing cycles in the Bank's history, and it has held there through six consecutive decisions since. That story is now over. The question on the table for the rest of 2026 isn't whether the Bank cuts again — it's whether the next move is actually a hike. Two conflicting signals, one Bank The case for staying put — or even cutting — comes from the growth side of the ledger. Statistics Canada data showed the economy contracted in both the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026, meeting the informal definition of a technical recession. That was enough to have some economists warning the Bank had no room to raise rates at a...
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Markets Surge on Positive U.S. Retail Data


The stock markets opened with a bang today as both the TSX and the S&P 500 reached record highs, buoyed by encouraging U.S. retail data.

The S&P 500 climbed by 1.2%, closing at 5,308.15, while the TSX Composite Index rose by 41.42 points to settle at 22,284.76. This surge was driven by strong performances in the technology and utility sectors, reflecting investor optimism following a favorable U.S. retail sales report.

The U.S. retail data showed a robust increase in consumer spending, which has been a key indicator of economic health. This positive sentiment was further bolstered by lower-than-expected inflation figures, providing a double dose of good news for the markets.

Kathrin Forrest, an equity investment specialist at Capital Group, noted, "It’s been a really constructive day for equities, certainly in North America. The technology sector, in particular, ended the week with a strong rally, led by semiconductor companies".

As investors continue to digest these positive economic indicators, the outlook for the markets remains optimistic. The combination of strong retail sales and manageable inflation suggests a resilient economy, which is likely to keep the markets buoyant in the near term.


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