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5 Things to Know Today — September 22, 2026

  September 22, 2026 BoC hike odds reach a coin flip. Oil retreats from four-month highs. Trump's Belarus potash play draws fire. A new federal bill speeds up major projects — with strings attached. Here's what moves your money today. 1. BoC October Hike Is Now a Coin Flip The Bank of Canada next meets October 28 , and markets are evenly split on whether it will raise rates for the first time since cutting to 2.25%. The whiplash is largely imported: after the U.S. Federal Reserve hiked 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00% on September 16 in a unanimous 12-0 vote — the first American rate increase since July 2023 — market-implied odds of a matching BoC move jumped from below 10% to roughly 60% in two weeks, according to LSEG Data & Analytics. Before the BoC's September 2 hold, odds of a hold sat at 94%. The 175-basis-point gap between the BoC (2.25%) and the Fed (3.75–4.00%) is the widest since 2022, which puts direct downward pressure on the loonie and upward pressure on Ca...
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Tensions Escalate as Iran Warns Israel Against Retaliation

 

On October 17, Iran issued a stern warning to Israel against any retaliatory actions following a recent missile barrage. This warning comes as Israel intensifies its military operations in Lebanon, targeting the Tehran-backed Hezbollah.

The commander of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards emphasized that any Israeli attack would be met with a stronger response, highlighting the fragile and volatile nature of the current situation. This development follows a series of escalations, including a significant missile attack by Iran on October 1, which has further strained relations between the two nations.

As both sides prepare for potential further conflict, the international community watches closely, concerned about the broader implications for regional stability.


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