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5 Things to Know Today: BoC Hike Odds, Fixed Rates, Tariff Swap, $100 Oil & Budget Countdown (Oct. 25)

  Canadian Money Brief • Sunday, October 25, 2026 A big week for your wallet starts Wednesday. Here are the five things Canadians should know before it begins. 1 The Bank of Canada decides Wednesday, and markets lean toward a hike The Bank of Canada announces its rate decision at 9:45 a.m. ET on Wednesday, Oct. 28, alongside a new Monetary Policy Report. Prediction markets price roughly a 79% chance of a quarter-point hike to 2.50%, up sharply after Governor Tiff Macklem’s hawkish comments at the IMF meetings, though analysts remain split and some expect a “hawkish hold.” The U.S. Fed also decides that day. What it means for you: Variable-rate mortgage and HELOC holders feel it first. A 0.25-point hike works out to roughly $70 more per month on a $500,000 variable mortgage (25-year amortization), and prime would move from 4.45% to 4.70%. A hold means little change until the next decision on Dec. 9. 2 Fixed mortgage rates have already moved without the Bank Fixed rates follow bond ...
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Canada Post Strike Threatens to Derail Critical Holiday Season for Retailers

 

As the holiday season approaches, a strike by over 55,000 Canada Post workers threatens to disrupt deliveries across the country. The Canadian Union of Postal Workers (CUPW) initiated the strike after failed negotiations with the Crown corporation over wages, working conditions, and other issues.

The timing couldn't be worse for retailers, who rely heavily on timely deliveries during this peak shopping period. With mail and parcels not being processed or delivered, businesses are scrambling to find alternative shipping solutions. Rural and remote communities, which depend solely on Canada Post, are expected to be hit the hardest.

While the strike has caused significant concern, Canada Post has assured that government benefit cheques, such as Old Age Security and the Canada Child Benefit, will still be delivered during the strike. However, the overall impact on retailers and consumers remains uncertain, and the situation is being closely monitored as the holiday season kicks into full gear.

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