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5 Things to Know Today: BoC Hike Odds, Fixed Rates, Tariff Swap, $100 Oil & Budget Countdown (Oct. 25)

  Canadian Money Brief • Sunday, October 25, 2026 A big week for your wallet starts Wednesday. Here are the five things Canadians should know before it begins. 1 The Bank of Canada decides Wednesday, and markets lean toward a hike The Bank of Canada announces its rate decision at 9:45 a.m. ET on Wednesday, Oct. 28, alongside a new Monetary Policy Report. Prediction markets price roughly a 79% chance of a quarter-point hike to 2.50%, up sharply after Governor Tiff Macklem’s hawkish comments at the IMF meetings, though analysts remain split and some expect a “hawkish hold.” The U.S. Fed also decides that day. What it means for you: Variable-rate mortgage and HELOC holders feel it first. A 0.25-point hike works out to roughly $70 more per month on a $500,000 variable mortgage (25-year amortization), and prime would move from 4.45% to 4.70%. A hold means little change until the next decision on Dec. 9. 2 Fixed mortgage rates have already moved without the Bank Fixed rates follow bond ...
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Israel-Hezbollah Ceasefire Holds as Lebanese Civilians Begin Returning Home


In the early hours of Wednesday, a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah took effect, bringing a temporary halt to over a year of conflict. The ceasefire, brokered by the United States and France, was announced by U.S. President Joe Biden and approved by Israel's security cabinet.

As the ceasefire took hold, thousands of Lebanese civilians began returning to their homes in the south, despite warnings from the Israeli military to delay their return until the area is fully secured. The agreement stipulates a 60-day period for Israeli forces to withdraw from southern Lebanon, while the Lebanese army will deploy troops to ensure Hezbollah does not rebuild its infrastructure.

The ceasefire has been welcomed by international leaders, including French President Emmanuel Macron and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who see it as a crucial step towards stability in the region. However, the situation remains tense, with both sides prepared to respond to any violations of the agreement.



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