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Markets Digest Hot U.S. Inflation as Iran Tensions Keep Oil Elevated

Publication:  moneysavings.ca / Canadian Money Brief  Date:  Tuesday, May 13, 2026 The TSX opens cautiously Wednesday after hotter-than-expected U.S. CPI data rattled Wall Street on Tuesday, while Strait of Hormuz disruptions continue to lift energy stocks and pressure the loonie toward 1.35 against the greenback. TSX ~34,291 S&P 500 7,400.96 ▼0.16% WTI Oil ~$102/bbl ▲ Gold ~$4,721 USD/oz ▼ USD/CAD ~1.35 US CPI Apr 3.8% ▲ (est. 3.7%) Market Overview Canadian investors are starting Wednesday on a cautious note following a mixed session south of the border. U.S. equities dipped Tuesday after April's consumer price index came in at 3.8% — a touch above the 3.7% consensus forecast and the highest reading since May 2023 — while the core rate held at 2.8%, also above expectations. The data has effectively closed the door on any Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, with traders now pricing in a roughly 70% chance of a rate hike by April 2027. For Canadians, the ripple effects...
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Market Rally Takes a Breather Amid Investor Caution

 

The relentless rally in U.S. stocks has finally hit a pause, with futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 showing slight declines in early trading on Tuesday. This comes after both indices closed at record highs on Monday, driven by a post-election surge and investor optimism.

Market Performance

Dow Jones Industrial Average futures dipped by 0.1%, while S&P 500 futures fell by 0.2%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 futures also edged down by 0.1%. This slight pullback is seen as a natural pause after a week of significant gains that pushed major indices to unprecedented levels.

Investor Sentiment

Wall Street analysts are signaling caution, suggesting that the recent surge might be overdone. According to Bank of America, investor exposure to U.S. stocks has reached an 11-year high, which could set the stage for profit-taking. Citi strategists echoed this sentiment, noting that the bullish bets might soon lead to a market correction.

Economic and Political Factors

The market is also digesting the potential policy impacts of President-elect Donald Trump’s cabinet picks. Florida Senator Marco Rubio has been nominated for Secretary of State, joining other high-profile China hawks in the administration. This has raised concerns about tougher tariffs on Chinese goods, which could spur inflation and affect global trade dynamics.

Cryptocurrency Surge

In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin’s rally continues, with the digital currency nearing the $90,000 mark before easing back to around $87,240. This surge is attributed to investor optimism surrounding Trump’s pro-crypto policies.

Upcoming Economic Data

Investors are now turning their attention to upcoming economic reports. Wednesday’s consumer price index (CPI) for October will be closely watched for signs of cooling inflation, which is a key focus for the Federal Reserve. Additionally, Thursday’s retail sales data will provide further insights into consumer spending trends ahead of the holiday season.

Conclusion

While the market’s recent performance has been impressive, the current pause reflects a mix of profit-taking and cautious optimism. As investors await more economic data and clarity on the new administration’s policies, the market could see increased volatility in the coming weeks.


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