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5 Things to Know Today: BoC Hike Odds, Fixed Rates, Tariff Swap, $100 Oil & Budget Countdown (Oct. 25)

  Canadian Money Brief • Sunday, October 25, 2026 A big week for your wallet starts Wednesday. Here are the five things Canadians should know before it begins. 1 The Bank of Canada decides Wednesday, and markets lean toward a hike The Bank of Canada announces its rate decision at 9:45 a.m. ET on Wednesday, Oct. 28, alongside a new Monetary Policy Report. Prediction markets price roughly a 79% chance of a quarter-point hike to 2.50%, up sharply after Governor Tiff Macklem’s hawkish comments at the IMF meetings, though analysts remain split and some expect a “hawkish hold.” The U.S. Fed also decides that day. What it means for you: Variable-rate mortgage and HELOC holders feel it first. A 0.25-point hike works out to roughly $70 more per month on a $500,000 variable mortgage (25-year amortization), and prime would move from 4.45% to 4.70%. A hold means little change until the next decision on Dec. 9. 2 Fixed mortgage rates have already moved without the Bank Fixed rates follow bond ...
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Rebel Group Seizes Key Myanmar Border Town, Dealing Blow to Military Regime


A powerful rebel group has seized control of Kanpaiti, a key trading town in northeastern Myanmar on the Chinese border, marking a significant setback for the military-led government. Witnesses report that the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) has taken over the town, which is a lucrative rare earth mining hub.

The loss of Kanpaiti leaves Myanmar's military in control of only one town with a border crossing, Muse, and deprives it of potential profits from the mines that provide China with rare earth minerals critical for various high-tech applications. Video clips circulating on social media, which could not be independently verified, showed a KIA member raising the group's flag at the tunnel through the mountain to China.

The military seized power from the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi in February 2021, triggering intensified fighting with long-established armed militias organized by Myanmar's ethnic minority groups. The KIA's recent success is part of a broader offensive by an alliance of powerful militias that has led to a series of unprecedented defeats for the Tatmadaw, Myanmar's armed forces.

The ongoing civil war and military restrictions make travel for journalists nearly impossible, but the reports were confirmed by witnesses by telephone. The fall of Kanpaiti is another blow to the regime, but analysts suggest it may not significantly affect the military's ability to wage war.


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