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5 Things to Know Today: BoC Hike Odds, Fixed Rates, Tariff Swap, $100 Oil & Budget Countdown (Oct. 25)

  Canadian Money Brief • Sunday, October 25, 2026 A big week for your wallet starts Wednesday. Here are the five things Canadians should know before it begins. 1 The Bank of Canada decides Wednesday, and markets lean toward a hike The Bank of Canada announces its rate decision at 9:45 a.m. ET on Wednesday, Oct. 28, alongside a new Monetary Policy Report. Prediction markets price roughly a 79% chance of a quarter-point hike to 2.50%, up sharply after Governor Tiff Macklem’s hawkish comments at the IMF meetings, though analysts remain split and some expect a “hawkish hold.” The U.S. Fed also decides that day. What it means for you: Variable-rate mortgage and HELOC holders feel it first. A 0.25-point hike works out to roughly $70 more per month on a $500,000 variable mortgage (25-year amortization), and prime would move from 4.45% to 4.70%. A hold means little change until the next decision on Dec. 9. 2 Fixed mortgage rates have already moved without the Bank Fixed rates follow bond ...
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Trump's Appointees Criticize Trudeau and Canada's Border Security

In the wake of President-elect Donald Trump's victory, his appointees have been vocal in their criticism of Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and the country's border security measures. As Trump begins to fill key positions in his administration, many of his most loyal supporters, now landing top jobs, have expressed concerns about Canada's policies.

Mike Waltz, Trump's pick for national security adviser, has repeatedly criticized Trudeau on social media, particularly regarding his handling of issues related to China. Waltz has also commented on the upcoming Canadian election, predicting that Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre will "send Trudeau packing in 2025" and start addressing what he calls the "progressive mess" in Canada.

Elise Stefanik, Trump's choice for ambassador to the United Nations, has also raised alarms about security at the Canadian border. As a member of the Northern Border Security Caucus, Stefanik has called for increased measures to combat human and drug trafficking, claiming that dangerous illegal immigrants are crossing the northern border in record numbers.

These criticisms highlight the potential for strained relations between the U.S. and Canada as Trump's administration takes shape. With key appointees focusing on border security and foreign policy, the future of Canada-U.S. relations remains uncertain.

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