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5 Things to Know Today: BoC Hike Odds, Fixed Rates, Tariff Swap, $100 Oil & Budget Countdown (Oct. 25)

  Canadian Money Brief • Sunday, October 25, 2026 A big week for your wallet starts Wednesday. Here are the five things Canadians should know before it begins. 1 The Bank of Canada decides Wednesday, and markets lean toward a hike The Bank of Canada announces its rate decision at 9:45 a.m. ET on Wednesday, Oct. 28, alongside a new Monetary Policy Report. Prediction markets price roughly a 79% chance of a quarter-point hike to 2.50%, up sharply after Governor Tiff Macklem’s hawkish comments at the IMF meetings, though analysts remain split and some expect a “hawkish hold.” The U.S. Fed also decides that day. What it means for you: Variable-rate mortgage and HELOC holders feel it first. A 0.25-point hike works out to roughly $70 more per month on a $500,000 variable mortgage (25-year amortization), and prime would move from 4.45% to 4.70%. A hold means little change until the next decision on Dec. 9. 2 Fixed mortgage rates have already moved without the Bank Fixed rates follow bond ...
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U.S. Embassy in Kyiv Closes Amid Warnings of Significant Russian Air Attack

 

In a precautionary move, the U.S. Embassy in Kyiv has temporarily closed its doors following warnings of a potentially significant Russian air attack. The embassy issued a statement advising employees to shelter in place and recommended that U.S. citizens in Kyiv be prepared to take immediate shelter if an air alert is announced.

This closure comes amid heightened tensions after the U.S. authorized the use of longer-range missiles by Ukraine, which were reportedly used in a recent attack on a Russian weapons warehouse. The Kremlin has responded with threats of retaliation, further escalating the conflict that has already seen frequent missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure.

The embassy’s warning is notable for its specificity, as air attacks have become a near-daily occurrence in Ukraine. However, the recent developments have added a new layer of urgency and caution to the situation.


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