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The Rate Cuts Are Over — Is a Hike Coming?

  July 23, 2026 Oil shocks, sticky inflation and a technical recession are pulling the Bank of Canada in opposite directions at once. For most of the past two years, the only question about the Bank of Canada was how far and how fast it would cut. The overnight rate fell from 5.00% to 2.25% between June 2024 and October 2025, one of the sharpest easing cycles in the Bank's history, and it has held there through six consecutive decisions since. That story is now over. The question on the table for the rest of 2026 isn't whether the Bank cuts again — it's whether the next move is actually a hike. Two conflicting signals, one Bank The case for staying put — or even cutting — comes from the growth side of the ledger. Statistics Canada data showed the economy contracted in both the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026, meeting the informal definition of a technical recession. That was enough to have some economists warning the Bank had no room to raise rates at a...
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U.S. Futures Edge Higher Amid Trump Rally and Anticipation of Fed’s Rate Decision

 

U.S. stock futures are showing modest gains following a significant rally sparked by Donald Trump’s return to the presidency. Investors are now keenly awaiting the Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate decision.

Market Reaction:

The markets have reacted positively to Trump’s victory, with expectations of lower corporate taxes and deregulation driving the rally. The Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all saw substantial gains, with the Dow E-minis up 82 points (0.18%), S&P 500 E-minis up 11.5 points (0.19%), and Nasdaq 100 E-minis up 49 points (0.23%) in premarket trading.

Federal Reserve’s Decision:

Traders are largely anticipating a 25-basis point rate cut from the Federal Reserve. The central bank’s policy statement will be closely scrutinized for any indications of future monetary easing. The market’s focus is also on whether the Republican party will maintain control of the House of Representatives, which could further influence economic policies.

Investor Sentiment:

Investor sentiment remains cautiously optimistic. While some stocks that surged post-election have given back gains, others like Qualcomm have continued to perform well. The VIX, Wall Street’s “fear gauge,” is trading at a six-week low, indicating reduced market volatility.

As the day progresses, all eyes will be on the Federal Reserve’s announcement and its potential impact on the markets.


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