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5 Things to Know Today: BoC Hike Bets, TSX Slide, Oil Near $100 (Oct. 23)

  Canadian Money Brief • Friday, October 23, 2026 The Bank of Canada decision is five days away, the TSX gave back most of Wednesday's gains, and oil is flirting with US$100 again. Here are the five things Canadian wallets need to know today. 1. Markets Lean Toward a Bank of Canada Hike on Oct. 28 A decision that looked like a ninth straight hold is now a genuine coin flip with a hawkish tilt. After Governor Tiff Macklem warned that there is "no resolution in sight" for the Middle East conflict, BMO and Desjardins flipped to a hike call, Scotiabank firmed up its call and Goldman Sachs joined them, all looking for a quarter-point move to 2.50%. Overnight swaps priced about an 87% chance of a hike earlier this week, though other economists still argue for a hold, pointing to September's 68,000 job losses and a 6.5% unemployment rate. What it means for you: A quarter-point hike adds roughly $21 a month in interest for every $100,000 of variable-rate borrowing (HELOCs an...
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Freeland's Exit and Economic Woes: Canada Faces $61.9 Billion Deficit

In a dramatic turn of events, the Canadian government unveiled its fall economic update on Monday, revealing a staggering $61.9 billion deficit for the last fiscal year. The announcement was overshadowed by the abrupt resignation of Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland, who stepped down just hours before she was scheduled to present the update.

Freeland's resignation letter, posted on social media, cited irreconcilable differences with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau over the country's economic direction. She criticized the government's "costly political gimmicks" and urged Trudeau to work collaboratively with provincial leaders to address the looming threat of tariffs from U.S. President-elect Donald Trump.

The economic update, tabled by Government House Leader Karina Gould, includes over $20 billion in new spending and a $1.3 billion border security package aimed at countering Trump's tariff threats. The document also highlights the government's GST holiday, which took effect on Saturday and is expected to cost $1.6 billion.

Freeland's departure has sparked calls for Trudeau's resignation and raised questions about the future of Canada's economic policy. Public Safety Minister Dominic LeBlanc has been sworn in as the new finance minister, tasked with navigating the country through these turbulent times.



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