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5 Things to Know Today — September 22, 2026

  September 22, 2026 BoC hike odds reach a coin flip. Oil retreats from four-month highs. Trump's Belarus potash play draws fire. A new federal bill speeds up major projects — with strings attached. Here's what moves your money today. 1. BoC October Hike Is Now a Coin Flip The Bank of Canada next meets October 28 , and markets are evenly split on whether it will raise rates for the first time since cutting to 2.25%. The whiplash is largely imported: after the U.S. Federal Reserve hiked 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00% on September 16 in a unanimous 12-0 vote — the first American rate increase since July 2023 — market-implied odds of a matching BoC move jumped from below 10% to roughly 60% in two weeks, according to LSEG Data & Analytics. Before the BoC's September 2 hold, odds of a hold sat at 94%. The 175-basis-point gap between the BoC (2.25%) and the Fed (3.75–4.00%) is the widest since 2022, which puts direct downward pressure on the loonie and upward pressure on Ca...
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Parliament's Last-Minute Decision on $21B Spending Bill


                                                                        

 In a dramatic turn of events, Members of Parliament are gearing up for an eleventh-hour vote on a $21.6 billion spending bill. The vote, which is set to take place late tonight, comes just hours before the crucial deadline of December 10th.

The bill, proposed by the Liberals, seeks to allocate funds for various programs, including the First Nations child and family services program and compensation for Quebec's services for asylum seekers. However, the path to this vote has been anything but smooth. Parliament has been in a deadlock for months as Conservatives have been pressing the Liberals to release documents related to alleged misspending on a green-tech fund.

In a surprising move last week, Speaker Greg Fergus ruled to pause the ongoing privilege debate, allowing the spending bill vote to proceed. This decision underscores the urgency and importance of the bill, which includes $561 million for the Department of National Defence's Canadian multi-mission aircraft project.

Government House leader Karina Gould expressed cautious optimism, stating, "I'm looking forward to having the vote. There's a lot of really good things in there for Canadians, and it's important we get this done."

The outcome of this vote will have significant implications for various government programs and services, making it a pivotal moment for Canadian politics.



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