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5 Things to Know Today — September 22, 2026

  September 22, 2026 BoC hike odds reach a coin flip. Oil retreats from four-month highs. Trump's Belarus potash play draws fire. A new federal bill speeds up major projects — with strings attached. Here's what moves your money today. 1. BoC October Hike Is Now a Coin Flip The Bank of Canada next meets October 28 , and markets are evenly split on whether it will raise rates for the first time since cutting to 2.25%. The whiplash is largely imported: after the U.S. Federal Reserve hiked 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00% on September 16 in a unanimous 12-0 vote — the first American rate increase since July 2023 — market-implied odds of a matching BoC move jumped from below 10% to roughly 60% in two weeks, according to LSEG Data & Analytics. Before the BoC's September 2 hold, odds of a hold sat at 94%. The 175-basis-point gap between the BoC (2.25%) and the Fed (3.75–4.00%) is the widest since 2022, which puts direct downward pressure on the loonie and upward pressure on Ca...
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Stock Market Stumbles Post-Christmas as Investors Eye Jobs Data

                                        

U.S. stock futures fell Thursday as trading resumed after the Christmas holiday, with Wall Street bracing for the release of weekly jobless claims data. Futures tied to the S&P 500 and Nasdaq declined by 0.3%, while Dow Jones Industrial Average futures dropped 0.4%.

The market's struggle to extend the "Santa Claus rally" saw major indexes like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq nearing record highs after recovering from a Fed-fueled dip last week. Investors are now keenly awaiting the jobless claims report, which has taken on greater significance in the absence of other economic data this week.



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