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The Rate Cuts Are Over — Is a Hike Coming?

  July 23, 2026 Oil shocks, sticky inflation and a technical recession are pulling the Bank of Canada in opposite directions at once. For most of the past two years, the only question about the Bank of Canada was how far and how fast it would cut. The overnight rate fell from 5.00% to 2.25% between June 2024 and October 2025, one of the sharpest easing cycles in the Bank's history, and it has held there through six consecutive decisions since. That story is now over. The question on the table for the rest of 2026 isn't whether the Bank cuts again — it's whether the next move is actually a hike. Two conflicting signals, one Bank The case for staying put — or even cutting — comes from the growth side of the ledger. Statistics Canada data showed the economy contracted in both the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026, meeting the informal definition of a technical recession. That was enough to have some economists warning the Bank had no room to raise rates at a...
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Stock Market Stumbles Post-Christmas as Investors Eye Jobs Data

                                        

U.S. stock futures fell Thursday as trading resumed after the Christmas holiday, with Wall Street bracing for the release of weekly jobless claims data. Futures tied to the S&P 500 and Nasdaq declined by 0.3%, while Dow Jones Industrial Average futures dropped 0.4%.

The market's struggle to extend the "Santa Claus rally" saw major indexes like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq nearing record highs after recovering from a Fed-fueled dip last week. Investors are now keenly awaiting the jobless claims report, which has taken on greater significance in the absence of other economic data this week.



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