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Bank of Canada Rate Decision Countdown: What to Expect on July 15

  Published July 4, 2026 In eleven days, the Bank of Canada will make its fifth interest rate call of 2026. If you've got a mortgage renewing, a variable rate that moves with the Bank's decisions, or savings sitting in a high-interest account, this is the date to have circled. Here's where things stand heading into July 15, and what the smart money is expecting. Where the rate sits right now The Bank of Canada has held its policy rate at 2.25% since its last two decisions, with the Bank Rate at 2.50% and the deposit rate at 2.20%. The July 15 announcement, released at 9:45 a.m. ET, will also come with a full Monetary Policy Report, since the Bank publishes its detailed economic projections quarterly alongside the January, April, July, and October decisions. Why most economists expect another hold The case for standing pat comes down to two forces pulling in opposite directions: Inflation is running hot, but mostly for one reason. Canada's headline inflation rate jumped...
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Tumultuous Fall Session Ends as Parliament Takes Holiday Break Amidst Political Upheaval

 

Members of Parliament are set to begin their holiday break later today, capping off a tumultuous fall sitting filled with non-confidence votes, filibusters, stalled legislation, a growing deficit, and the finance minister's resignation.

After Chrystia Freeland's bombshell departure from cabinet Monday morning, several Liberal MPs called for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to step aside as well. Ontario MP Chad Collins left an evening caucus meeting telling reporters the Liberal caucus is divided and that the party needs a leadership race.

Dominic LeBlanc was sworn in as the new finance minister Monday, minutes after the government's fall economic statement was released. The economic update shows the deficit has grown to nearly $62 billion, far beyond the $40-billion target Freeland set earlier this year. The update includes $1.3 billion in new spending on measures to beef up the border in response to U.S. president-elect Donald Trump's threat to impose 25 percent tariff threats on Canadian goods.

LeBlanc, who is also in charge of intergovernmental affairs and democratic institutions, says his main priority as finance minister will be to address affordability issues. He will also continue to oversee the public safety file, implementing new border measures, until Trudeau holds a broader cabinet shuffle. That's expected to happen soon in order to replace ministers who have announced they won't seek re-election.

Parliament is set to resume on Jan. 27, after Trump's inauguration. When that happens, the Liberals may not be able to rely on the support of the NDP on confidence matters. NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh called for Trudeau's resignation on Monday, but he stopped short of saying his caucus would vote to bring down the government. His party has so far voted three times with the Liberals on non-confidence motions this fall, ensuring the minority government's survival.

Much of the fall sitting was dominated in the House of Commons by a filibuster on a Conservative privilege motion related to misspending at a now-defunct green technology fund. This has stalled most legislation in the House since late September.


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