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The Rate Cuts Are Over — Is a Hike Coming?

  July 23, 2026 Oil shocks, sticky inflation and a technical recession are pulling the Bank of Canada in opposite directions at once. For most of the past two years, the only question about the Bank of Canada was how far and how fast it would cut. The overnight rate fell from 5.00% to 2.25% between June 2024 and October 2025, one of the sharpest easing cycles in the Bank's history, and it has held there through six consecutive decisions since. That story is now over. The question on the table for the rest of 2026 isn't whether the Bank cuts again — it's whether the next move is actually a hike. Two conflicting signals, one Bank The case for staying put — or even cutting — comes from the growth side of the ledger. Statistics Canada data showed the economy contracted in both the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026, meeting the informal definition of a technical recession. That was enough to have some economists warning the Bank had no room to raise rates at a...
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Canada's Inflation Rate Declines to 1.8% in December Amid GST Tax Break

 

Canada's annual inflation rate fell to 1.8% in December 2024, according to Statistics Canada. This decrease is largely attributed to the federal government's temporary tax break on various goods and services, including food purchased from restaurants, alcohol, tobacco, and clothing.

The tax break, which was introduced mid-December, significantly contributed to the deceleration in inflation. Without this tax relief, the inflation rate would have risen to 2.3%. Grocery prices also saw a decline, falling to 1.9% from the previous month.

The Bank of Canada is now closely monitoring these developments as it prepares for its next interest rate decision. Analysts are speculating whether this consistent easing of inflation might prompt further rate cuts.

This report highlights the impact of fiscal policies on inflation and underscores the importance of government interventions in managing economic stability.




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