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5 Things to Know Today: BoC Hike Odds, Fixed Rates, Tariff Swap, $100 Oil & Budget Countdown (Oct. 25)

  Canadian Money Brief • Sunday, October 25, 2026 A big week for your wallet starts Wednesday. Here are the five things Canadians should know before it begins. 1 The Bank of Canada decides Wednesday, and markets lean toward a hike The Bank of Canada announces its rate decision at 9:45 a.m. ET on Wednesday, Oct. 28, alongside a new Monetary Policy Report. Prediction markets price roughly a 79% chance of a quarter-point hike to 2.50%, up sharply after Governor Tiff Macklem’s hawkish comments at the IMF meetings, though analysts remain split and some expect a “hawkish hold.” The U.S. Fed also decides that day. What it means for you: Variable-rate mortgage and HELOC holders feel it first. A 0.25-point hike works out to roughly $70 more per month on a $500,000 variable mortgage (25-year amortization), and prime would move from 4.45% to 4.70%. A hold means little change until the next decision on Dec. 9. 2 Fixed mortgage rates have already moved without the Bank Fixed rates follow bond ...
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Canada's Inflation Rate Declines to 1.8% in December Amid GST Tax Break

 

Canada's annual inflation rate fell to 1.8% in December 2024, according to Statistics Canada. This decrease is largely attributed to the federal government's temporary tax break on various goods and services, including food purchased from restaurants, alcohol, tobacco, and clothing.

The tax break, which was introduced mid-December, significantly contributed to the deceleration in inflation. Without this tax relief, the inflation rate would have risen to 2.3%. Grocery prices also saw a decline, falling to 1.9% from the previous month.

The Bank of Canada is now closely monitoring these developments as it prepares for its next interest rate decision. Analysts are speculating whether this consistent easing of inflation might prompt further rate cuts.

This report highlights the impact of fiscal policies on inflation and underscores the importance of government interventions in managing economic stability.




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