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5 Things to Know Today: BoC Hike Odds, Fixed Rates, Tariff Swap, $100 Oil & Budget Countdown (Oct. 25)

  Canadian Money Brief • Sunday, October 25, 2026 A big week for your wallet starts Wednesday. Here are the five things Canadians should know before it begins. 1 The Bank of Canada decides Wednesday, and markets lean toward a hike The Bank of Canada announces its rate decision at 9:45 a.m. ET on Wednesday, Oct. 28, alongside a new Monetary Policy Report. Prediction markets price roughly a 79% chance of a quarter-point hike to 2.50%, up sharply after Governor Tiff Macklem’s hawkish comments at the IMF meetings, though analysts remain split and some expect a “hawkish hold.” The U.S. Fed also decides that day. What it means for you: Variable-rate mortgage and HELOC holders feel it first. A 0.25-point hike works out to roughly $70 more per month on a $500,000 variable mortgage (25-year amortization), and prime would move from 4.45% to 4.70%. A hold means little change until the next decision on Dec. 9. 2 Fixed mortgage rates have already moved without the Bank Fixed rates follow bond ...
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Ford Calls for Early Election Amidst Political Turmoil


Ontario Premier Doug Ford is set to request the dissolution of the provincial parliament today, triggering an early election scheduled for February 27. Ford's office announced that he will visit Lt.-Gov. Edith Dumont this afternoon to end the legislature's 43rd parliament. Ford has stated that he needs a new mandate from the electorate to address issues related to U.S. President Donald Trump.

Opposition leaders, including NDP Leader Marit Stiles, Liberal Leader Bonnie Crombie, and Green Party Leader Mike Schreiner, have criticized the decision, calling it a waste of time and money. Despite the controversy, Ford plans to continue his duties as premier, including a visit to Washington, D.C., in February with other premiers, while also campaigning as the leader of the Progressive Conservatives.

The early election call comes amidst a backdrop of political and economic challenges, with Ford seeking to solidify his position and address pressing issues facing the province.

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