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5 Things to Know Today: BoC Hike Odds, Fixed Rates, Tariff Swap, $100 Oil & Budget Countdown (Oct. 25)

  Canadian Money Brief • Sunday, October 25, 2026 A big week for your wallet starts Wednesday. Here are the five things Canadians should know before it begins. 1 The Bank of Canada decides Wednesday, and markets lean toward a hike The Bank of Canada announces its rate decision at 9:45 a.m. ET on Wednesday, Oct. 28, alongside a new Monetary Policy Report. Prediction markets price roughly a 79% chance of a quarter-point hike to 2.50%, up sharply after Governor Tiff Macklem’s hawkish comments at the IMF meetings, though analysts remain split and some expect a “hawkish hold.” The U.S. Fed also decides that day. What it means for you: Variable-rate mortgage and HELOC holders feel it first. A 0.25-point hike works out to roughly $70 more per month on a $500,000 variable mortgage (25-year amortization), and prime would move from 4.45% to 4.70%. A hold means little change until the next decision on Dec. 9. 2 Fixed mortgage rates have already moved without the Bank Fixed rates follow bond ...
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Mark Carney Gains Momentum with Key Endorsements in Liberal Leadership Race

 

Liberal leadership hopeful Mark Carney has secured the endorsements of four more current and former cabinet ministers. On Tuesday, Indigenous Services Minister Patty Hajdu, Crown-Indigenous Relations and Northern Affairs Minister Gary Anandasangaree, and former housing minister Sean Fraser all threw their support behind Carney on social media. 

Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault also endorsed Carney while speaking to reporters at the Liberal cabinet retreat in Montebello, Quebec. Guilbeault praised Carney's experience and background, highlighting their collaboration on issues such as green energy transition and fighting climate change. 

Carney's stance on carbon pricing has been a focal point of his campaign. While he has been a longtime supporter of carbon pricing to combat climate change, he has hinted at a policy shift, suggesting that if the carbon price is to be replaced, it must be with something equally or more effective. 

The Liberal Party will choose a new leader on March 9 to replace Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who announced his resignation earlier this month. Carney's growing list of endorsements positions him as a strong contender in the leadership race.

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