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The Rate Cuts Are Over — Is a Hike Coming?

  July 23, 2026 Oil shocks, sticky inflation and a technical recession are pulling the Bank of Canada in opposite directions at once. For most of the past two years, the only question about the Bank of Canada was how far and how fast it would cut. The overnight rate fell from 5.00% to 2.25% between June 2024 and October 2025, one of the sharpest easing cycles in the Bank's history, and it has held there through six consecutive decisions since. That story is now over. The question on the table for the rest of 2026 isn't whether the Bank cuts again — it's whether the next move is actually a hike. Two conflicting signals, one Bank The case for staying put — or even cutting — comes from the growth side of the ledger. Statistics Canada data showed the economy contracted in both the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026, meeting the informal definition of a technical recession. That was enough to have some economists warning the Bank had no room to raise rates at a...

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Mark Carney's Alberta Roots: A Strategic Launch for Liberal Leadership

 

 Mark Carney, the former Governor of the Bank of Canada, is set to unveil his Liberal leadership campaign this afternoon in Edmonton, ending nearly a decade of speculation about his political ambitions. 

Carney's decision to launch his campaign from Alberta is a strategic move to highlight his roots in the province. An Edmonton Oilers fan, Carney grew up in the city's west end and worked as a newspaper boy. This launch gives him a chance to connect with voters in a province that has traditionally leaned conservative.

The leadership race is expected to be intense, with former finance minister Chrystia Freeland and government House leader Karina Gould also expected to enter the race in the coming days. The cut-off date to declare a bid for the leadership is January 23, and candidates have to pay a $350,000 entrance fee. 

Carney will seek to position himself as an outsider and put some distance between himself and the deeply unpopular government of outgoing Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives will attempt to tie Carney to the Trudeau government's sinking brand and attack him over his past support of carbon pricing and his recent work advising the Liberal party on economics.

Launching his campaign in Edmonton gives Carney a chance to put his Alberta roots on full display as Canadians get to know him. Alberta could shape up to be an intense battleground between Carney and Freeland, who also grew up in the province.



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