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5 Things to Know Today: BoC Hike Bets, TSX Slide, Oil Near $100 (Oct. 23)

  Canadian Money Brief • Friday, October 23, 2026 The Bank of Canada decision is five days away, the TSX gave back most of Wednesday's gains, and oil is flirting with US$100 again. Here are the five things Canadian wallets need to know today. 1. Markets Lean Toward a Bank of Canada Hike on Oct. 28 A decision that looked like a ninth straight hold is now a genuine coin flip with a hawkish tilt. After Governor Tiff Macklem warned that there is "no resolution in sight" for the Middle East conflict, BMO and Desjardins flipped to a hike call, Scotiabank firmed up its call and Goldman Sachs joined them, all looking for a quarter-point move to 2.50%. Overnight swaps priced about an 87% chance of a hike earlier this week, though other economists still argue for a hold, pointing to September's 68,000 job losses and a 6.5% unemployment rate. What it means for you: A quarter-point hike adds roughly $21 a month in interest for every $100,000 of variable-rate borrowing (HELOCs an...
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Ontario Premier Doug Ford Calls Snap Election for February 27

Ontario Premier Doug Ford is set to call a snap election next week, sending voters to the polls on February 27. This unexpected move comes as Ford seeks a fresh mandate to address the looming threat of tariffs from the United States under President Donald Trump. The provincial election, originally scheduled for June 2026, has been advanced as Ford emphasizes the need for a "strong mandate" to protect Ontario's economy and jobs.

Ford's decision has sparked criticism from opposition leaders, who accuse him of prioritizing his political career over the province's stability. Ontario Liberal leader Bonnie Crombie expressed her disapproval, stating that Ford has chosen "recklessness over responsibility". Despite the controversy, recent polls indicate that Ford's Progressive Conservative Party holds a significant lead, with 46% of respondents supporting the Conservatives.

The upcoming election will be the first mid-winter election in Ontario since 1981. As the province braces for this unexpected political event, all eyes will be on Ford's announcement next week and the subsequent campaign trail.

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