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5 Things to Know Today — September 22, 2026

  September 22, 2026 BoC hike odds reach a coin flip. Oil retreats from four-month highs. Trump's Belarus potash play draws fire. A new federal bill speeds up major projects — with strings attached. Here's what moves your money today. 1. BoC October Hike Is Now a Coin Flip The Bank of Canada next meets October 28 , and markets are evenly split on whether it will raise rates for the first time since cutting to 2.25%. The whiplash is largely imported: after the U.S. Federal Reserve hiked 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00% on September 16 in a unanimous 12-0 vote — the first American rate increase since July 2023 — market-implied odds of a matching BoC move jumped from below 10% to roughly 60% in two weeks, according to LSEG Data & Analytics. Before the BoC's September 2 hold, odds of a hold sat at 94%. The 175-basis-point gap between the BoC (2.25%) and the Fed (3.75–4.00%) is the widest since 2022, which puts direct downward pressure on the loonie and upward pressure on Ca...
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Ontario Premier Doug Ford Calls Snap Election for February 27

Ontario Premier Doug Ford is set to call a snap election next week, sending voters to the polls on February 27. This unexpected move comes as Ford seeks a fresh mandate to address the looming threat of tariffs from the United States under President Donald Trump. The provincial election, originally scheduled for June 2026, has been advanced as Ford emphasizes the need for a "strong mandate" to protect Ontario's economy and jobs.

Ford's decision has sparked criticism from opposition leaders, who accuse him of prioritizing his political career over the province's stability. Ontario Liberal leader Bonnie Crombie expressed her disapproval, stating that Ford has chosen "recklessness over responsibility". Despite the controversy, recent polls indicate that Ford's Progressive Conservative Party holds a significant lead, with 46% of respondents supporting the Conservatives.

The upcoming election will be the first mid-winter election in Ontario since 1981. As the province braces for this unexpected political event, all eyes will be on Ford's announcement next week and the subsequent campaign trail.

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