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5 Things to Know Today: BoC Hike Odds, Fixed Rates, Tariff Swap, $100 Oil & Budget Countdown (Oct. 25)

  Canadian Money Brief • Sunday, October 25, 2026 A big week for your wallet starts Wednesday. Here are the five things Canadians should know before it begins. 1 The Bank of Canada decides Wednesday, and markets lean toward a hike The Bank of Canada announces its rate decision at 9:45 a.m. ET on Wednesday, Oct. 28, alongside a new Monetary Policy Report. Prediction markets price roughly a 79% chance of a quarter-point hike to 2.50%, up sharply after Governor Tiff Macklem’s hawkish comments at the IMF meetings, though analysts remain split and some expect a “hawkish hold.” The U.S. Fed also decides that day. What it means for you: Variable-rate mortgage and HELOC holders feel it first. A 0.25-point hike works out to roughly $70 more per month on a $500,000 variable mortgage (25-year amortization), and prime would move from 4.45% to 4.70%. A hold means little change until the next decision on Dec. 9. 2 Fixed mortgage rates have already moved without the Bank Fixed rates follow bond ...
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S&P 500 Soars to Record High Two Days After Trump's Inauguration

In a remarkable turn of events, the S&P 500 index reached a record high just two days after President Donald Trump's inauguration. The market surged by 0.81%, briefly trading above 6,100, driven by renewed optimism around Trump's trade policies. Investors seemed unfazed by Trump's tariff threats, focusing instead on the potential benefits of his administration's economic plans.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average also saw gains, rising by 127 points, while the Nasdaq index climbed 1.5%. Analysts attribute the market's performance to strong earnings reports and Trump's more moderate tone on trade compared to his campaign promises.

As the new administration settles in, market watchers are keenly observing how Trump's policies will shape the economic landscape in the coming months.




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