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5 Things to Know Today: BoC Hike Odds, Fixed Rates, Tariff Swap, $100 Oil & Budget Countdown (Oct. 25)

  Canadian Money Brief • Sunday, October 25, 2026 A big week for your wallet starts Wednesday. Here are the five things Canadians should know before it begins. 1 The Bank of Canada decides Wednesday, and markets lean toward a hike The Bank of Canada announces its rate decision at 9:45 a.m. ET on Wednesday, Oct. 28, alongside a new Monetary Policy Report. Prediction markets price roughly a 79% chance of a quarter-point hike to 2.50%, up sharply after Governor Tiff Macklem’s hawkish comments at the IMF meetings, though analysts remain split and some expect a “hawkish hold.” The U.S. Fed also decides that day. What it means for you: Variable-rate mortgage and HELOC holders feel it first. A 0.25-point hike works out to roughly $70 more per month on a $500,000 variable mortgage (25-year amortization), and prime would move from 4.45% to 4.70%. A hold means little change until the next decision on Dec. 9. 2 Fixed mortgage rates have already moved without the Bank Fixed rates follow bond ...
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Ceasefire Deal in Gaza: Hostages Freed and Prisoners Released


In a significant development in the Middle East, Hamas has released three hostages as part of a ceasefire deal with Israel. The hostages, Yarden Bibas, Ofer Kalderon, and Keith Siegel, were handed over to the Red Cross in the southern Gaza Strip. This release is part of the fourth round of exchanges under the ceasefire agreement, which also saw Israel releasing dozens of Palestinian prisoners.

The ceasefire, which began six weeks ago, aims to release a total of 33 hostages and nearly 2,000 prisoners, as well as facilitate the return of Palestinians to northern Gaza and increase humanitarian aid to the devastated territory. The next phase of negotiations will focus on releasing the remaining hostages and extending the truce indefinitely.

The Rafah border crossing with Egypt has also reopened, allowing thousands of Palestinians in need of medical care to access treatment. This development signals that the ceasefire agreement is gaining traction, although the situation remains fragile.

As negotiations continue, the hope is that this ceasefire will pave the way for a lasting peace in the region.



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