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5 Things to Know Today: BoC Hike Odds, Fixed Rates, Tariff Swap, $100 Oil & Budget Countdown (Oct. 25)

  Canadian Money Brief • Sunday, October 25, 2026 A big week for your wallet starts Wednesday. Here are the five things Canadians should know before it begins. 1 The Bank of Canada decides Wednesday, and markets lean toward a hike The Bank of Canada announces its rate decision at 9:45 a.m. ET on Wednesday, Oct. 28, alongside a new Monetary Policy Report. Prediction markets price roughly a 79% chance of a quarter-point hike to 2.50%, up sharply after Governor Tiff Macklem’s hawkish comments at the IMF meetings, though analysts remain split and some expect a “hawkish hold.” The U.S. Fed also decides that day. What it means for you: Variable-rate mortgage and HELOC holders feel it first. A 0.25-point hike works out to roughly $70 more per month on a $500,000 variable mortgage (25-year amortization), and prime would move from 4.45% to 4.70%. A hold means little change until the next decision on Dec. 9. 2 Fixed mortgage rates have already moved without the Bank Fixed rates follow bond ...
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Stock Market Today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq Rebound Amid China Tariff Retaliation and New Jobs Data

                                    

US stocks rebounded on Tuesday as investors assessed China's swift retaliation to the latest US tariffs and digested fresh jobs data. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.2%, while the S&P 500 gained 0.7%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite jumped 1.2%.

China responded to the new 10% tariffs imposed by the US with tariffs of its own on US coal, liquified natural gas, crude oil, farm equipment, and some autos. Despite the escalating trade tensions, some analysts see China's measured response as a potential opening for compromise.

Meanwhile, job openings in the US declined more than expected in December, adding to concerns about the labor market's cooling trend. Investors are closely watching these developments as the Federal Reserve considers future interest rate cuts amid ongoing inflation concerns.

Tech stocks led the gains, with Alphabet (Google) shares rising nearly 2% ahead of its fourth-quarter earnings report. Vaccine stocks, however, fell after Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s nomination to lead the Health and Human Services Department advanced to the Senate.

Overall, the market's positive reaction suggests cautious optimism as traders navigate the complexities of trade relations and economic data.



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