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Lock In or Wait? Why Two Big Banks Say Rates Are Going Up in October

  Published September 2, 2026 The Bank of Canada did exactly what all 35 economists in Reuters' latest poll expected today: it held its overnight rate at 2.25% for a sixth straight decision, keeping the prime rate at 4.45%. Bond markets had priced in barely a 3% chance of anything else. What's not settled is what happens next — and on that question, Canada's biggest banks are more split than they've been all year. Four of the Big Six expect the Bank to sit tight through the end of 2026. Two expect it to start hiking as soon as October. If you're renewing a mortgage in the next few months, that gap isn't academic — it's the difference between locking in now and gambling on a rate cycle turning against you. The Split, Bank by Bank Here's where the six largest banks stand on where the overnight rate lands by the end of 2026: Bank Year-end 2026 call Stance BMO 2.25% (hold) Hold camp CIBC 2.25% (hold) Hold camp RBC 2.25% (hold) Hold camp TD 2.25% (hold) Hold...
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Tariff Turmoil: Markets React as Trump Targets Key Trading Partners

                                              

U.S. stock index futures took a sharp hit on Monday after President Trump announced steep tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China. The new measures include a 25% duty on goods from Canada and Mexico and a 10% levy on Chinese products, sparking fears of an escalating trade war and its potential to disrupt global supply chains.

Dow futures fell by more than 500 points early in the session, while both S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures dipped by around 1.5% to 2%. The sudden drop reflects mounting concerns among investors that the tariffs could trigger retaliatory measures from the affected nations, further intensifying market volatility and potentially slowing economic growth.

Analysts warn that if the trade conflict intensifies, the resulting uncertainty may push inflation higher and force the Federal Reserve to reconsider its policy stance. With key economic data and quarterly earnings reports on the horizon, traders and investors are closely monitoring the situation for further clues about the future direction of the markets.

Globally, markets from Europe to Asia have also shown signs of strain, underscoring the broad impact of the U.S. tariff policy. As nations weigh their responses, the coming days will be critical in determining whether these moves mark the start of a broader trade confrontation or a temporary market correction.


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