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5 Things to Know Today — September 22, 2026

  September 22, 2026 BoC hike odds reach a coin flip. Oil retreats from four-month highs. Trump's Belarus potash play draws fire. A new federal bill speeds up major projects — with strings attached. Here's what moves your money today. 1. BoC October Hike Is Now a Coin Flip The Bank of Canada next meets October 28 , and markets are evenly split on whether it will raise rates for the first time since cutting to 2.25%. The whiplash is largely imported: after the U.S. Federal Reserve hiked 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00% on September 16 in a unanimous 12-0 vote — the first American rate increase since July 2023 — market-implied odds of a matching BoC move jumped from below 10% to roughly 60% in two weeks, according to LSEG Data & Analytics. Before the BoC's September 2 hold, odds of a hold sat at 94%. The 175-basis-point gap between the BoC (2.25%) and the Fed (3.75–4.00%) is the widest since 2022, which puts direct downward pressure on the loonie and upward pressure on Ca...
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Tariff Turmoil: Markets React as Trump Targets Key Trading Partners

                                              

U.S. stock index futures took a sharp hit on Monday after President Trump announced steep tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China. The new measures include a 25% duty on goods from Canada and Mexico and a 10% levy on Chinese products, sparking fears of an escalating trade war and its potential to disrupt global supply chains.

Dow futures fell by more than 500 points early in the session, while both S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures dipped by around 1.5% to 2%. The sudden drop reflects mounting concerns among investors that the tariffs could trigger retaliatory measures from the affected nations, further intensifying market volatility and potentially slowing economic growth.

Analysts warn that if the trade conflict intensifies, the resulting uncertainty may push inflation higher and force the Federal Reserve to reconsider its policy stance. With key economic data and quarterly earnings reports on the horizon, traders and investors are closely monitoring the situation for further clues about the future direction of the markets.

Globally, markets from Europe to Asia have also shown signs of strain, underscoring the broad impact of the U.S. tariff policy. As nations weigh their responses, the coming days will be critical in determining whether these moves mark the start of a broader trade confrontation or a temporary market correction.


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